Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) – 2025-09-18

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) advanced 8.5% on elevated volume and turnover.
• Price broke above a key 1.28–1.29 resistance range with bullish confirmation.
• RSI reached overbought territory, suggesting short-term pullback risk.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, reflecting increased volatility.
• Volume distribution shows strong buying pressure in the final 12 hours.

The Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) pair opened at 1.260 on September 17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.344 on the same time the next day, achieving a high of 1.361 and a low of 1.254. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 15,857,521.3 RUNE, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $21,389,887.56 (assuming 1 RUNE ≈ $1.00 for calculation purposes).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart reveals a strong bullish trend with a key breakout above a horizontal resistance at the 1.28–1.29 level confirmed by a breakout candle and subsequent consolidation. A large 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:45 ET, followed by a series of higher highs and lows. A doji formed at 06:45 ET, signaling short-term indecision amid the broader uptrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has remained above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for over 12 hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is crossing above the 200-period MA, indicating a potential medium-term trend reversal to the bullish side.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains in positive territory with a strong bullish crossover, and histogram bars are expanding, reinforcing the upward momentum. RSI hit 72, suggesting the pair is overbought. However, this has occurred amid strong volume, so caution should be exercised in calling a reversal too early.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased significantly, with Bollinger Bands expanding in the past 6 hours. Price has been trading near the upper band since 22:15 ET, signaling a strong bullish bias. A pullback toward the 1.32–1.33 range would be a probable retest for near-term support.

Volume & Turnover
Volume surged after 20:00 ET with a massive 335,599.3 RUNE traded in a single 15-minute interval. Turnover aligned with volume increases, showing no divergence. The final 12 hours saw more than 50% of the total volume, indicating strong accumulation and institutional-like buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying a Fibonacci retracement to the 1.254–1.361 swing, the 61.8% level is at approximately 1.329, which has held as a minor support area during pullbacks. The 38.2% level at 1.344 is near the current close, and a failure to hold here could prompt a retest of the 1.32–1.33 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong breakout pattern and bullish momentum indicators, a potential backtest strategy would involve entering a long position at the close of the breakout candle with a stop loss placed just below the 1.28–1.29 resistance range. A target would be set at the 1.361 high or the next Fibonacci extension at 1.38. This approach leverages the breakout confirmation and aligns with the directional bias of the 50/200 MA crossover on the daily chart. Volume and turnover data support the trade setup, indicating strong participation across the 24-hour period.

Price could extend the rally toward 1.37–1.38 in the next 24 hours, especially if volume remains elevated. However, investors should remain cautious of an overbought RSI and possible pullback to test key Fibonacci levels. A break below 1.32 could signal a shift in sentiment.