Market Overview for Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) on 2025-09-16

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) closed higher at 1.259 on 2025-09-16, after a volatile session with a 1.25–1.276 range.
• Momentum picked up during the day with a sharp breakout above key resistance at 1.265, aided by rising volume in the afternoon.
• RSI entered overbought territory mid-day, suggesting possible near-term profit-taking, though bullish continuation patterns remain intact.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, indicating increased volatility, while price tested and held above the 15-min 50 SMA.
• Total volume reached 2.15 million RUNE, with notional turnover of $2.72 million for the 24-hour period.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-16, Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 1.253 and closed at 1.259 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The 24-hour candle reached a high of 1.276 and a low of 1.244, with a total volume of 2.15 million RUNE and $2.72 million in notional turnover.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed strong bearish pressure early in the morning, with a 1.253–1.244 pullback before a sharp reversal began in the early afternoon. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 1.255–1.259 around 20:00 ET–1, followed by a series of higher highs and higher lows that signaled a breakout above key resistance at 1.265. A small doji appeared at 1.261–1.262 at 04:30 ET, suggesting indecision, but price quickly resumed its upward bias.

Key support levels identified include 1.255 and 1.250, with the 1.244–1.250 range acting as a recent consolidation zone. Resistance levels are now at 1.265 and 1.271, with the 1.276 high on 2025-09-16 representing a critical psychological level to watch in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 SMA and 50 SMA were in bullish alignment, with price holding above both. At 06:15 ET, the 20 SMA was at 1.263 and the 50 SMA at 1.259, supporting the current upward trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50 SMA appears to be around 1.253, and the 200 SMA is slightly below, indicating a potential long-term bullish setup if the 200 SMA is taken out.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed into positive territory in the late afternoon, with a bullish divergence appearing as price and the histogram both moved higher. RSI reached overbought levels above 70 in the early evening, suggesting potential exhaustion of the bullish move. However, the lack of immediate bearish follow-through and continued volume support indicate that buyers are still in control.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was high throughout the session, as evidenced by the wide expansion of Bollinger Bands. Price remained above the 20-period middle band for most of the session and approached the upper band at key resistance levels. A contraction in the bands occurred just before the breakout at 1.265, signaling a potential turning point and the start of a new trend leg.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the late afternoon and early evening, coinciding with the breakout above 1.265. Notional turnover followed suit, confirming the strength of the move. A divergence appears in the early morning, where price moved lower but volume remained relatively flat, indicating a lack of bearish conviction. However, the late-day volume spike confirmed the bullish breakout, suggesting strong accumulation by buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 1.244–1.276 swing, key levels at 38.2% (1.258) and 61.8% (1.267) were tested and held in the afternoon. The 61.8% level became a temporary consolidation area before price broke higher. On the daily timeframe, 61.8% Fibonacci levels could offer support at 1.249 and resistance at 1.273, based on a previous bearish correction from 1.280 to 1.244.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions at the 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern with a stop loss below the 1.250–1.255 consolidation zone. This would align with the breakout confirmation and positive MACD divergence. A take-profit target could be set at 1.271, reflecting the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This setup would capture the late-day breakout while managing risk with a defined stop and clear target.