Market Overview for Ronin/Bitcoin (RONINBTC) – November 12, 2025

Summary
• Price declined from 2.81e-06 to 2.71e-06, closing below key support.
• High volatility observed during early ET hours with a sharp bearish reversal.
• Volume surged to over 7k during key bearish move; turnover remains mixed.
• RSI and MACD suggest bearish momentum may continue.
• No clear bullish reversal patterns formed within the 24-hour window.

The 24-hour candle for Ronin/Bitcoin (RONINBTC) opened at 2.81e-06 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 2.71e-06 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 2.81e-06 and a low of 2.71e-06. Total volume for the period was 53,805.11, and notional turnover (RONIN x BTC price) reached significant levels during key swings, particularly in the late hours of the previous day.

Structure & Formations

The price action unfolded with a sharp bearish trend forming from the 17:45 ET to 19:45 ET window, with a clear breakdown below the 2.75e-06 level. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:45 ET, followed by a continuation of downward momentum. The price found temporary support at 2.71e-06, which held for a short period but failed to sustain a rebound. No bullish reversal patterns emerged, and the formation suggests a continuation of bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price during the major bearish leg, reinforcing the downtrend. The 50-period MA provided resistance at around 2.75e-06 earlier in the day, which was decisively broken. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200-period MAs are all likely bearish if in alignment, further supporting a continuation of the current bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line and remained negative for the majority of the 24-hour window, with a bearish divergence observed in the final hours of the period. The RSI dipped into oversold territory during the last 30 minutes of the window, reaching levels below 30, which may suggest a potential short-term bounce. However, the lack of a strong bullish confirmation candle implies that further declines are more probable than a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

The price spent most of the period near the lower Bollinger band, indicating heightened volatility and a strong bearish bias. A significant contraction in the band width occurred between 17:00 and 18:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion during the bearish break. The current price is well within the lower band, suggesting continued pressure to the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the key bearish breakdown at 17:45 ET (6375.77) and again at 19:15 ET (7271.19), indicating active selling pressure. Turnover confirmed the bearish volume spikes, with large notional trades occurring during those windows. Divergence between price and volume was not observed, suggesting continuation of the trend rather than exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 2.81e-06 to 2.71e-06 move, the 38.2% level at ~2.77e-06 held briefly but failed to attract buyers. The 61.8% level at ~2.74e-06 acted as a minor resistance, but price broke below it decisively. The current price sits near the 2.71e-06 level, which is close to the 100% retracement of the prior bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing patterns and strong volume confirmation during the key 17:45–19:45 ET window, the backtest could simulate a short entry at the close of the engulfing candle, with an exit at the next support level defined as the 2.71e-06 area. Using daily close prices and a 50-period SMA as a secondary support reference may offer improved risk-to-reward ratios. A holding period of up to 10 trading sessions could be applied as a time-based stop. To run this test, the backtester would need a clearly defined ticker and exit rules as previously requested. This setup aligns with the bearish momentum and Fibonacci levels observed in this 24-hour period.