Market Overview for Ronin/Bitcoin (RONINBTC) – 2025-10-04

• Price opened at 3.99e-06 and closed at 3.88e-06 on 2025-10-04
• Strong bearish momentum with multiple downward breaks below key support
• Volatility increased mid-day with sharp drop below 3.94e-06
• Turnover spiked in late evening session but failed to trigger a reversal
• RSI and MACD signal overbought conditions in short-term, with bearish divergence forming

Ronin/Bitcoin (RONINBTC) opened at 3.99e-06 on October 3, 2025, and closed at 3.88e-06 by 12:00 ET on October 4. The 24-hour candle recorded a high of 3.99e-06 and a low of 3.88e-06. Total volume was 30,108.55, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 115.75 BTC.

The structure of the RONINBTC pair over the past 24 hours showed bearish dominance, with a breakdown from the 3.96e-06 support into a lower range. A key bearish candle on 2025-1004 15:30:00 (ET) marked a sharp drop to 3.88e-06, suggesting increased selling pressure. Notable patterns include a morning bearish engulfing pattern and a late-evening hammer, which failed to provide sustainable reversal.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart confirmed the downward bias, with the price closing below both. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-day moving averages also indicated a bearish alignment. RSI fell into oversold territory at the end of the 24-hour period, but this was not accompanied by a reversal in momentum. MACD showed a bearish crossover and remained in negative territory, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Bollinger Bands were in expansion mode, with price sitting well below the lower band for much of the day.

The volume profile showed a significant increase during the sharp breakdown in the late evening, with a large volume spike observed in the candle that closed at 3.88e-06. This volume confirmed the bearish move, but notional turnover failed to match the strength of the drop, suggesting some caution. The divergence between price and turnover raises the possibility of short-term consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the most recent 15-minute swing identified key levels at 3.93e-06 (38.2%) and 3.90e-06 (61.8%). The price currently appears to be testing the 3.90e-06 level. A break below this could see further testing of prior levels at 3.88e-06 and even 3.86e-06.

A potential short-term bearish continuation is likely, with the near-term target at 3.86e-06 and 3.84e-06. However, bear traps or short-covering rallies could occur if the RSI rebounds above 30 without a corresponding volume confirmation. Investors should remain cautious ahead of the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy relies on a combination of the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart as a trend filter and RSI divergence as a signal trigger. During the 24-hour period, RSI reached oversold levels with a bearish divergence, suggesting a potential short entry. A trade entry could be placed at the close of the candle that broke the 3.94e-06 level, with a stop just above the high of the hammer pattern at 3.94e-06 and a take-profit at 3.88e-06. This approach would have captured the majority of the downward move. A backtest over the past month would validate the strategy's effectiveness in similar bearish environments, particularly in low-volume conditions where price momentum can quickly reverse without clear volume confirmation.