Market Overview for AS Roma Fan Token/Tether (ASRUSDT): Sharp 24-Hour Drop and Bearish Momentum

• Price declined sharply from ~2.428 to ~2.134, with heavy bearish bias after 22:00 ET.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with RSI reaching oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands showed widening volatility, particularly during the large selloff.
• Volume spiked during the 09:45–10:00 ET and 22:15–22:45 ET periods, confirming strong sell pressure.
• Fibonacci retracement levels from the 22:00–22:45 ET swing suggest potential near-term support around 2.29.

The 24-hour period for AS Roma Fan Token/Tether (ASRUSDT) began at 2.423 and ended at 2.134, with a high of 2.428 and a low of 2.000. The price action reflects intense bearish momentum, with a prolonged sell-off starting at 22:15 ET. Total volume for the day was ~447,200.4 units, while notional turnover was ~1,072,838.8 USD. The price action formed a series of bearish engulfing patterns and confirmed key support levels around 2.29, 2.23, and 2.15.

Structure and candlestick formations reveal a clear breakdown from the mid-2.42 range, with a large bearish body forming during the 22:15–22:45 ET window as the price fell from 2.378 to 2.334. This was followed by a continuation of bearish momentum into the early morning hours. Key support levels have emerged at ~2.15, ~2.23, and ~2.29, with the 2.23–2.29 zone appearing as a potential consolidation area. Doji patterns were observed during the 04:45–05:00 and 11:45–12:00 ET windows, suggesting short-term indecision. However, these were quickly followed by renewed selling pressure.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a steepening of the 20-period and 50-period SMAs below price, confirming the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the price closed well below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a strong bearish bias. The 20-period EMA crossed below the 50-period EMA multiple times during the day, forming a bearish "death cross" pattern. The RSI dropped into oversold territory, reaching levels around 25–28, while the MACD line remained negative, reinforcing the downward trend.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 22:15–23:45 ET window, with the price breaking below the lower band. This widening volatility coincided with the large selloff, where volume surged. The price currently sits near the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting potential for a bounce back toward the mid-band or even a retest of the upper band if short-term buying interest emerges. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension level aligns closely with the 2.00 level, which acted as a temporary floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves a short-selling approach based on the 20- and 50-period moving averages crossover, with entries initiated when the 20-period EMA crosses below the 50-period EMA (a death cross) and the price breaks below key support levels confirmed by candlestick patterns. The strategy also incorporates RSI as a filter, with trades only entered when the RSI has dropped into the 30–35 range, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a short-covering rally or bear trap. Stop-loss levels are placed above key Fibonacci retracement levels, while take-profit targets are aligned with the lower Bollinger Band and major psychological levels. The recent price action, particularly the large bearish candle and subsequent consolidation, provides a viable entry window for this strategy if the price continues to hold below 2.23.