Summary
• Price action was range-bound, with a 1.521 high and 1.491 low in the last 24 hours.
• Volume spiked midday and declined in the afternoon, showing mixed
.
• A 1.51–1.514 support zone held, while 1.52–1.524 acted as dynamic resistance.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions in the morning and oversold in the evening.
• Bollinger Band contraction in the afternoon hinted at low volatility and potential breakout.
AS Roma Fan Token/Tether (ASRUSDT) opened at 1.52 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of 1.531 before closing at 1.509 at 12:00 ET. The low during the period was 1.491. Total volume was 148,702 units, and total turnover (value) was approximately $223,560 over the 24-hour window.
Structure & Formations
Price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern in the early morning session, followed by a small bullish engulfing pattern around 09:00 ET. A key support level at 1.51–1.514 was tested multiple times, with a final close near 1.509. Resistance at 1.52–1.524 failed to hold after an initial morning rally. A doji formed around 08:30 ET, signaling indecision and potential reversal.
Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA ran slightly above the 50-period SMA, but price action failed to break above the 20SMA in the afternoon. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA is approaching 1.515 from below, with the 200-period SMA acting as a potential long-term floor near 1.495.
MACD & RSI
The MACD line crossed above the signal line early in the session, forming a bullish signal, but this was followed by a quick crossover below the zero line, confirming mixed momentum. The RSI hit overbought levels above 70 in the early morning and oversold levels below 30 in the evening, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
Bollinger Bands
Price remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, but a contraction was observed between 05:00 and 08:00 ET, indicating a potential breakout. The bands widened again after 08:30 as volatility returned. Price remained closer to the lower band in the afternoon, suggesting bearish bias.
Volume & Turnover
Volume peaked at around 28,513 units at 08:15 ET and 18,793 units at 09:00 ET, while turnover followed suit. However, the afternoon saw a decline in both volume and turnover despite continued price movement. Divergence between price and volume in the late afternoon suggests weakening momentum.
Fibonacci Retracements
Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 1.51–1.531 swing, the 61.8% level is at 1.522, which held as resistance. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels from a larger bearish leg align with 1.515 and 1.508 respectively—both areas were tested during the session.
Backtest Hypothesis
Given the mixed momentum and key Fibonacci levels, a viable backtest strategy could involve shorting the pair from the 61.8% retracement at 1.522 with a stop above 1.525 and targeting 1.514. A separate long entry could be considered at the 1.508 level, with a stop below 1.504 and a target at 1.515. This approach would leverage both Fibonacci levels and confirmed support/resistance from the candlestick structure.
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