Market Overview for AS Roma Fan Token/Tether (ASRUSDT)

• Price declined sharply over the 24-hour period, dropping from $2.633 to $2.485, with increased volatility evident in expanding Bollinger Bands.
• RSI and MACD both signaled bearish momentum, with the RSI dipping near oversold territory at 25, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volume surged during the key bearish move, especially in the early hours of 2025-09-15, showing strong bear participation.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early, followed by a doji at the session low, indicating indecision and potential short-term resistance.
• Key support levels appear at $2.485 and $2.466, with a critical resistance area forming near $2.513 from a recent bullish rejection.

AS Roma Fan Token/Tether (ASRUSDT) opened at $2.633 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $2.636, a low of $2.453, and closing at $2.485 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 553,883.1 and notional turnover was $1,390,649.7.

The price action shows a strong bearish bias, with a sharp decline beginning early in the session and continuing through the following day. A bearish engulfing candle at the open was followed by a doji at the low, signaling exhaustion in the bearish move. Bollinger Bands showed a contraction into expansion, reinforcing the volatility. A strong bearish channel was evident from $2.633 to $2.453, and Fibonacci retracement levels suggest a possible bounce from the 61.8% level at $2.485.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were clearly bearish, with the 20-period line under the 50-period. RSI hit 25, a level often seen as oversold, suggesting a potential rebound. MACD showed a negative divergence, with the line dropping below zero and staying there, reinforcing the bearish signal. The price remained below the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session, indicating high volatility and bearish dominance.

Volume spiked significantly during the bearish leg from $2.633 to $2.453, especially during the early hours of 2025-09-15. The increased volume confirmed the strength of the bearish move. Notional turnover mirrored this, with a large spike corresponding to the key break at $2.502. However, a divergence between price and turnover occurred around 06:15–07:45 ET, where turnover dropped despite continued downward price movement, suggesting diminishing bear pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves a short-entry signal on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below the 50-period moving average, with a stop-loss placed just above the pattern’s high. A target is set at the next Fibonacci 61.8% level or the nearest support. Given the recent bearish action and confirmed technical signals, a short trade initiated around 02:30–03:00 ET (after the bearish engulfing candle) could have been valid. The strategy appears to align with the observed price behavior, especially the confirmation of bearish momentum and volume divergence.