Market Overview for AS Roma Fan Token/Tether (ASRUSDT) — 2025-10-06 12:00 ET

• The 24-hour session ended lower at 2.318 with bearish momentum intensifying in the final hours.
• Price broke below key support levels with volume increasing 15% in the last 6 hours.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting a potential rebound, though trend remains bearish.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price trading near the lower band.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 2.337, signaling increased likelihood of further downside.

AS Roma Fan Token/Tether (ASRUSDT) opened at 2.285 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET, hit a high of 2.455, and closed at 2.318 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 1,196,225.9, with total turnover of $2,883,596. The pair has shown increasing bearish pressure, especially in the last 6 hours.

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bearish trend, with price failing to hold above key support levels like 2.337 and 2.351. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 2.337, and a long lower shadow appeared at 2.371, hinting at rejection from the upper band. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 100-day SMAs appear to be converging with the 200-day SMA acting as a distant support. Price appears to be consolidating below the 50-day SMA, suggesting ongoing bearish pressure.

RSI has fallen into oversold territory near 28, which could signal a short-term rebound. However, the MACD histogram has remained negative for the past 8 hours, and the signal line continues to trend downward, suggesting bearish momentum is likely to persist. On the Bollinger Bands chart, price has been trading near the lower band for the past 4 hours, a sign of heightened volatility and potential for a bounce. A 20-period standard deviation expansion is evident, indicating a period of market uncertainty.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of 2.455 to the low of 2.273 show 38.2% at 2.359 and 61.8% at 2.321, with price closing near the 61.8% level. This suggests a potential consolidation phase before a possible test of the 38.2% level or a continuation of the bearish trend. Volume and turnover have been increasing since 07:00 ET, with volume peaking at 184,205 in the 08:30–08:45 ET session, confirming the bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves identifying bearish engulfing patterns near key Fibonacci retracement levels and validating them with RSI and MACD divergence. A trade is triggered when the pattern completes, RSI is oversold, and MACD confirms bearish momentum. Stops are placed above the engulfing high, and targets are set at the next Fibonacci level (38.2% retracement in this case). Given today’s pattern at 2.337 and RSI at 28, this strategy could have produced a short entry with a defined stop above 2.351 and a target at 2.359. Backtesting this approach over recent 15-minute data would help assess its effectiveness in capturing short-term bearish moves in this pair.