Market Overview for Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) – October 5, 2025

• Rocket Pool/USDC traded in a tight range before breaking out sharply on a massive 11,493.73 volume candle in early hours.
• Momentum accelerated from 4.98 to 5.22 amid zero-volume bullish continuation patterns during overnight Asian trading.
• Bollinger contraction before 00:00 ET preceded the breakout, suggesting a potential high-volatility continuation phase.
• A key 5.12 support level was retested twice with mixed conviction, signaling possible near-term uncertainty.
• Turnover diverged after 05:00 ET, with price peaking at 5.22 but volume dropping off, signaling potential near-term exhaustion.

Market Snapshot

Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) opened at 4.98 on October 4 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.10 by the same time on October 5. The 24-hour range reached a high of 5.29 and a low of 4.93. Total volume traded was 16,731.43, and notional turnover amounted to approximately $84,845. The price surged sharply overnight, with a significant volume spike during the 00:15–00:30 ET window.

Structure & Formations

The price structure revealed a critical breakout from a tightening consolidation zone, with the 00:15–00:30 ET candle acting as a breakout bar. This candle showed a high of 5.29 (a 5.5% jump from the previous close) and closed at 4.98, suggesting a possible trap or false signal. However, the follow-through during Asian hours confirmed the breakout with higher highs, reaching 5.22. A key 5.12 support level was retested twice, first with a bullish reversal and then a bearish rejection, indicating mixed conviction. A bearish harami formed at 09:45–10:00 ET, signaling a potential pullback.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs show the price is above both, indicating a bullish bias. The daily chart (not provided) would show a stronger position above the 50, 100, and 200 SMA lines if this bullish trend continues. The RSI is currently at 54, suggesting moderate momentum but not overbought conditions. The MACD crossed above the signal line during the early breakout and remains positive, confirming upward momentum.

Volatile Breakout and Bollinger Band Dynamics

Bollinger Bands contracted sharply before 00:00 ET, followed by an explosive move that pierced above the upper band. This breakout may continue or consolidate, depending on whether volume confirms further buying. Price retesting the lower band near 5.07 during the afternoon suggests a possible retracement target. A close below 5.06 may bring in sellers.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

The massive volume spike at 00:15–00:30 ET was unmatched for the rest of the day. After the 05:00 ET high of 5.22, volume dropped to near zero, while price continued to drift down. This divergence could signal a short-term exhaustion phase. The most consistent volume occurred in the 10:15–10:30 and 11:15–11:30 ET sessions, aligning with bearish reversals and bearish continuation patterns.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the key swing from 4.93 to 5.22, the 38.2% retracement sits at 5.11 and was retested twice. The 61.8% retracement at 5.04 was briefly tested in the afternoon. The 50% level at 5.07 is a key psychological threshold to watch if the price retraces. These levels could serve as dynamic support/resistance as volatility continues to evolve.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on Bollinger Band breakouts and volume confirmation could have captured the overnight move. Entering on a close above the upper band with volume above the 20-period average would align with the morning’s move. Stops could be placed below key Fib levels or recent swing lows, while targets could be set at the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements. This strategy would benefit from a strong RSI divergence or bearish pattern as an exit signal.