Market Overview: Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) – October 3, 2025

• Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) rose from $5.07 to $5.44, then retreated to $5.23, ending near $5.23.
• A strong bullish impulse followed by a bearish correction suggests mixed sentiment and potential volatility ahead.
• Volume spiked during the rally, then declined during the pullback, signaling possible consolidation or reversal.
• RSI overbought levels and a bearish divergence imply caution, while Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion in volatility.
• Key support appears near $5.22–$5.18, with resistance forming at $5.27–$5.30.

Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) opened at $5.07 on October 2, 2025, at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $5.44 before closing at $5.23 on October 3, 2025, at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded was 13,928.05, while notional turnover reached $75,753.68, showing significant activity during the bullish phase. The price action reflected a strong mid-day breakout followed by a late pullback, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

Structure and price formations suggest that the $5.22–$5.18 zone acts as a critical support area, with several candles testing this level. A notable bearish reversal pattern emerged in the late afternoon, with a high-volume candle forming at $5.27 followed by a decline to $5.23. This suggests that buyers may be losing control, especially given the bearish divergence seen in RSI and the MACD histogram turning negative.

Moving averages for the 15-minute chart show a bearish crossover, with the 20-period line dropping below the 50-period line during the afternoon. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bullish bias. However, the recent pullback suggests a possible consolidation before a continuation.

The RSI reached overbought territory during the afternoon rally but quickly corrected into neutral to oversold territory, hinting at short-term exhaustion. Bollinger Bands widened during the breakout and have since begun to contract, suggesting potential consolidation or a reversal. The price closed near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating possible bearish pressure.

Volume and notional turnover spiked during the mid-day rally, with a peak of $3,402.77 in turnover at $5.33. However, during the subsequent pullback, volume declined sharply, suggesting weak follow-through from sellers. This divergence between price and volume raises the likelihood of a short-term reversal or consolidation phase.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the key swing from $5.07 to $5.44 show that the $5.22 level corresponds to the 38.2% retracement, and the $5.18 level aligns with the 61.8% retracement. These levels appear to have acted as strong support zones, especially as volume thinned and candles closed at or near these levels.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy could be to enter long at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on a bullish breakout above the 15-minute 50-period MA, with a stop-loss placed below the 61.8% retracement level. Given the recent volume divergence during the pullback, a short bias could also be considered if price closes below $5.22 with increasing volume. Both scenarios require confirmation via candlestick action and convergence of the RSI and MACD.