Market Overview for Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC)

• Price dropped 3.5% in 24h amid heavy selling pressure after a brief recovery attempt.
• Key support tested at $6.34–6.35, with a bearish divergence noted in volume and price.
• Volatility increased during the session, peaking in the early hours before consolidating.
• RSI reached overbought levels temporarily but failed to sustain above 60, suggesting weak momentum.

Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) opened at $6.45 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET and closed at $6.38 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $6.66 and a low of $6.24 within the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 20,678.84, with notional turnover reaching $135,236. The market experienced heightened volatility and uneven momentum across the session.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key bearish engulfing pattern near $6.44–6.42 in the early morning hours, signaling a reversal of the short-term bullish trend. A low-volume doji emerged at $6.35 around 03:15 ET, suggesting indecision and a potential support level. A broad bearish flag developed from $6.66 to $6.24 during the overnight hours, with $6.34–6.35 acting as a critical support zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover near $6.45, confirming the downward shift. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above $6.50, while the 200-period MA hovers near $6.40, indicating a potential bearish bias as price remains below both.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and diverged with the price action during the afternoon hours, with the histogram contracting after a brief bearish impulse. RSI fell into oversold territory (below 30) by 05:00 ET, suggesting a potential rebound, but failed to trigger a sustained rally. A bearish divergence between RSI and price occurred as price hit $6.24, signaling further downside risks.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after the early morning sell-off, with price hitting the lower band at $6.24 during the session. A contraction was noted between 03:00 and 05:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as the price collapsed further. Price is currently testing the lower band, indicating potential for continued bearish action.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning hours, particularly around $6.40–6.44, with the largest single bar at $6.66–6.59 showing heavy selling. Notional turnover diverged with price in the final hours of the session, as price dropped to $6.34–6.35 while volume remained subdued. This divergence hints at potential exhaustion in the short-term bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart included 38.2% at $6.49 and 61.8% at $6.42, both of which failed to provide meaningful resistance. Daily retracement levels showed 61.8% at $6.35, which aligns with the recent support test and could serve as a near-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in MACD and the failure of RSI to confirm a bullish bounce from oversold levels, a short-term bearish bias is warranted. A potential entry point to test the continuation of this trend could be after a confirmed break below $6.34, with a stop-loss above $6.38 to manage risk. If volume picks up on the break, it may indicate institutional participation, increasing the probability of a sustained move. This strategy aligns with the observed volatility contraction and bearish engulfing pattern.