Market Overview for Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC): 24-Hour Bearish Breakdown

• Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) dropped from 3.27 to 2.81 over 24 hours, closing below major support levels.
• Price action shows a bearish breakdown with strong volume acceleration on the downside in the final 12 hours.
• RSI and MACD likely in oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term bounce but not confirming a reversal.
• Bollinger Bands contracted into a tight range before the sharp selloff, signaling increased volatility and potential continuation.
• Large negative volume spikes and divergences in price vs. turnover highlight liquidity pressure and distribution.

Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) opened at 3.22 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 2.81 by 12:00 ET the following day. The pair reached a high of 3.27 and a low of 2.81, with total trading volume of 10,859.6 and a notional turnover of 30,057.8 USDC over the 24-hour window. Price action was dominated by a prolonged bearish phase, especially from 22:15 ET onward, with a sharp drop into the early morning hours.

The breakdown from the 3.23–3.27 range was confirmed by several bearish signals. A key support level at 3.21 was tested and breached, followed by a rapid descent into the 2.80s. A 15-minute candle from 10:15 to 10:30 ET showed a large bearish bar with a high of 2.92 and a low of 2.89, followed by a continuation of selling pressure. A potential engulfing pattern formed between 10:30 and 11:15 ET, reinforcing the downtrend.

Moving averages provided bearish confirmation across the 15-minute chart. The 20-period and 50-period SMAs were both below the price during the selloff, and the 50-period line crossed below the 20-period, forming a bearish death cross. The 200-period SMA on daily charts would have offered a reference for long-term trend context, but given the 15-minute focus, shorter-term dynamics dominated.

MACD lines remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram expanding during the late-night selloff. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 in the final hours, but without a strong reversal candle or bullish divergence, the oversold reading appears more as a continuation signal than a reversal. Bollinger Bands showed a contraction earlier in the session, but the violent break below the lower band in the final hours confirmed a continuation of bearish momentum.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the most recent 15-minute swing from 3.23 to 2.81 highlighted 38.2% at ~3.07 and 61.8% at ~2.95 as potential bounce levels. However, the failure to hold at 2.95 and the rapid drop through 2.89 suggest that short-term buyers are weak. Daily-level retracements from the 3.27 peak to the 2.81 close also show 38.2% at ~3.09 and 61.8% at ~2.96, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside unless strong buying pressure emerges.

Volume and turnover data revealed a concerning pattern: while volume remained high during the selloff, turnover dropped off in the late hours, suggesting distribution by large participants. A divergence between price and turnover was observed around 05:45 ET, when price dropped to 3.06 but turnover remained elevated, indicating potential exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the asset’s recent RSI behavior, a potential backtest strategy could focus on capturing oversold bounce opportunities. Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) spent much of the 24-hour window in oversold territory, with RSI dipping below 30. A typical approach would be to enter long positions when RSI crosses back above 30, with an exit when it crosses above 50. However, given the prolonged bearish momentum observed in this session, the RSI oversold level may act as a continuation signal rather than a reversal cue.

To refine the hypothesis, a combination of RSI(14) and MACD could be used: entering when RSI crosses above 30 and MACD turns bullish, with a stop-loss placed below the 20-period SMA. An alternative rule might involve holding until the next oversold signal, but given the volume and turnover divergence seen in this session, a tighter stop-loss would be prudent.

Looking ahead, Rocket Pool/USDC may remain under pressure in the short term, with 2.80 as a potential near-term target. A bullish reversal will require a strong rejection of this level with increasing volume and positive divergence in RSI and MACD. However, investors should remain cautious, as the breakdown appears to have attracted profit-taking and distribution, reducing the likelihood of a quick rebound. Volatility is likely to remain elevated, so position sizing and risk management will be critical for traders entering short-term positions.