Market Overview for Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) on 2025-10-11

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• Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) closed near the session low at 3.58, down from a high of 4.79
• Momentum weakened late in the session with a sharp drop and high volume
• Key support tested at 3.55 and 3.20, with a volatility spike from 4.79 to 0.65
• Turnover surged during the 21:15–21:30 ET window amid sharp downside
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during the late New York session

The 24-hour candle for Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) opened at 4.75 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 3.58 by 12:00 ET, marking a sharp intraday drop from a high of 4.79 to a low of 0.65. The total volume over the 24-hour period was 138,088.34, with notional turnover reaching $606,168.69. Price action was dominated by a sharp bearish shift in the late evening, with key support levels appearing at 3.55 and 3.20.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours showed a clear bearish bias, especially from 21:15–21:30 ET, where a massive bearish engulfing pattern formed. This candle opened at 4.2 and closed at 1.82, indicating a strong shift in sentiment. A doji near 3.37 at the market’s bottom suggests a potential near-term support level. The price then rebounded slightly, forming a small bullish pattern at 3.56–3.58, suggesting a possible short-term bounce from the 3.55–3.60 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the current price of 3.58, showing a strong bearish divergence. The 50-period MA currently sits at 3.62, while the 20-period MA is at 3.59—both above price. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 3.85, the 100-period at 3.91, and the 200-period at 3.89, indicating that the asset is trading well below its longer-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory late in the session, confirming the bearish momentum. The MACD line reached a low of -0.12 with a signal line of -0.08, suggesting continued downward pressure. The RSI is currently at 32, indicating oversold conditions, but with a weak recovery trend, suggesting further support testing may occur before a rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked sharply during the 21:15–21:30 ET window when price dropped from 4.2 to 1.82, causing a significant expansion of the Bollinger Bands. Price has since bounced and currently sits near the lower band at 3.56–3.58, indicating a potential near-term bottoming zone.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume was recorded between 21:15–21:30 ET with 14,649.6 units traded, coinciding with a dramatic price drop. Turnover also spiked sharply during this period, with a peak of $48,000+ in notional value. The divergence between price and volume in the final hours of the session—where volume declined despite price continuing to fall—raises caution about potential exhaustion or a bear trap.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the key 15-minute swing from 4.79 to 0.65, the 38.2% retracement level is at 3.56, and the 61.8% level is at 3.20. Price has bounced off the 38.2% level multiple times in the last 4 hours, suggesting it may hold in the near term. The 61.8% level at 3.20 has been tested once, and a break below could lead to a test of the 2.97 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish setup and confirmed Fibonacci retracement levels, a short-biased strategy entering on a close below 3.55 with a stop above 3.62 (a distance of 7–9 cents) may offer a favorable risk/reward profile. A profit target of 3.20 aligns with the 61.8% retracement and could yield a 35–40 point move if the short thesis plays out. This setup is most effective when used in conjunction with RSI divergence and volume confirmation for a higher-probability signal.