Market Overview for Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) – 2025-09-27

• RPLUSDC experienced a bearish reversal after reaching a 24-hour high of 5.01, closing at 4.87 near the session open.
• Price action showed key support around 4.85–4.87 and tested resistance at 4.90–4.95 multiple times.
• Volume spiked at 20:00 ET and 09:00 ET, but failed to confirm price strength, suggesting divergences.
• RSI remained in neutral range while MACD showed bearish divergence, hinting at fading momentum.
• Volatility expanded during the 18:00–20:00 ET window, followed by a contraction in the early morning hours.

Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) opened at 4.87 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET, climbed to a high of 5.01, and closed at 4.87 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-27. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 10,090.11 with a notional turnover of $49,559.42. The price failed to hold above key resistance levels and showed signs of bearish fatigue during the final 12 hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bearish divergence from 20:00 to 02:00 ET, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming at 20:00 ET after a sharp spike. A key support level at 4.85–4.87 held four times during the session, reinforcing its relevance. A 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 4.87–5.01 move at 4.94 acted as a dynamic resistance, while the 61.8% level at 4.93 offered partial resistance during the morning recovery. Price failed to form a bullish reversal above these levels, indicating bearish control.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly after 21:00 ET, suggesting short-term weakness. The 50-period moving average is currently at ~4.89, and the 20-period at ~4.90, indicating a bearish bias. RSI remained in the 50–55 range throughout the session, showing neutral momentum, but failed to break above 60 during attempted bounces. MACD showed a bearish crossover after 22:00 ET, with a negative histogram that suggests the trend may continue lower.

Volatility and Divergences

Bollinger Bands widened during the 18:00–20:00 ET window, with price reaching the upper band multiple times before retracting. By 02:00 ET, volatility had contracted, and price remained within the middle band for much of the session. Volume spiked at 20:00 ET and 09:00 ET, but price failed to close higher on both occasions, signaling bearish divergence. Total volume and turnover were unevenly distributed, with most activity concentrated in three key windows.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could target a short trade at 4.85–4.87, using 4.93 as a dynamic stop-loss and 4.75 as a profit target. This approach would aim to capture a continuation of the bearish trend, leveraging key support and resistance levels identified in the 15-minute structure. The MACD and RSI neutrality suggest no immediate overbought condition, while the volume divergence supports the case for further downside. A stop above 4.93 would be prudent to manage risk from potential long-covering rallies.