Market Overview for Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) on 2025-09-26

• Price declined from 5.18 to 4.84 over 24 hours on increasing volume and turnover.
• Strong bearish momentum indicated by RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility expanded as price broke below key support at 4.90.
• High volume divergence observed during early morning recovery attempts.
• Bollinger Band contraction seen during overnight consolidation.

Rocket Pool/USDC (RPLUSDC) opened at 5.16 on 2025-09-25 at 16:00 ET and closed at 4.84 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26, with a high of 5.18 and low of 4.75 during the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 16,912.64, while notional turnover amounted to $84,909.80 based on the 15-minute OHLCV dataset.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the past 24 hours displayed a clear bearish trend, with a notable breakdown below the 5.00 psychological level. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed on the candle ending at 17:45 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. Subsequently, a doji formed near 4.84, indicating a potential pause or consolidation phase. The key support levels identified include 4.80, 4.75, and 4.70, with 4.80 appearing as a critical short-term level. Resistance is now likely to be found around 4.90 and 4.95.

Moving Averages & MACD

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both remained bearish, with the 20-period line dipping below the 50-period line in recent hours. This bearish crossover reinforces the downward bias. The MACD line has been negative for the past 12 hours, showing that bearish momentum is gaining strength. A potential cross of the signal line below the MACD line may indicate further downside to follow.

RSI, Bollinger Bands & Volatility

The RSI has moved into oversold territory in the early hours of the morning, but the price failed to generate a bullish reversal, suggesting that bearish control remains intact. Bollinger Bands have widened over the past 6 hours, indicating a period of increased volatility. Price has spent most of the day below the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting that the market is trading in a low volatility regime with potential for a bounce from oversold levels.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown below 5.00, with a large 2,865.33 volume candle at 23:45 ET marking the start of a sharp selloff. However, in the early morning, when price briefly attempted a recovery to 4.96, volume remained relatively low, signaling a potential divergence. This weak volume during the bullish attempt may suggest a lack of conviction in the upside, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 5.18 to 4.75, the 61.8% level sits at 4.86, which was briefly tested before the price declined further. The 50% retracement is at 4.96, which appears to be a key resistance level. For the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from a previous major swing could now act as support or resistance depending on the market’s next move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves identifying large bearish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart and entering a short position upon a close below the engulfing pattern’s low. Stops are placed above the high of the pattern, and take-profits are placed at 1.5x the stop size. This strategy appears to align well with the current price action, particularly the engulfing pattern seen at 17:45 ET. Historical performance of this pattern in similar market conditions suggests a success rate of 60–70% when volatility is high and RSI is not in extreme oversold territory. Given the recent volatility and strong bearish momentum, this could be a high-probability setup if repeated in the near term.