Market Overview for Renzo/USDC (REZUSDC): 24-Hour Technical Summary

• REZUSDC formed a bearish breakdown after hitting 0.00851, with volume surging during the dip to 0.00808 on 15253909.19999999 USDC turnover
• RSI dipped below 30 during the intra-day selloff, signaling oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a rebound
• Price consolidated between 0.00816–0.00838 in the final 8 hours, with no clear breakout above key resistance
• Bollinger Bands tightened after 05:00 ET, hinting at a potential breakout
• 20-period MA turned lower post-17:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum

Renzo/USDC (REZUSDC) opened at 0.00835 on October 30 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.00851, fell to a low of 0.00797, and closed at 0.00842 by 12:00 ET on October 31. Total trading volume amounted to 152,539,091.2 USDC, with a notional turnover of $1,283,165 (assuming 1 USDC = $1.00).

The pair experienced a sharp bearish reversal from midday onward, with price falling below key support at 0.00816 before bouncing back to 0.0084. The breakdown appeared to be led by a high-volume bearish engulfing pattern around 17:45 ET, followed by a long lower wick at 19:45 ET indicating short-covering. Price remained range-bound in the 0.00816–0.00838 corridor for the final 8 hours, with no clear resolution toward either side.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels observed during the session were 0.00808 and 0.00816, both of which acted as price floors during the selloff. Resistance was tested at 0.00845, 0.00851, and 0.00856, though only the 0.00856 level held briefly before a pullback. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:45 ET, suggesting a shift in sentiment. Additionally, a long lower wick at 19:45 ET and a bullish harami pattern at 23:45 ET hinted at short-covering and cautious bullish sentiment.

Moving Averages

The 20-period MA turned bearish after 17:00 ET, crossing below the 50-period MA and confirming the bearish reversal. The 50-period MA, which had been bullish earlier in the session, flattened by the end of the 24-hour period, signaling a loss of momentum. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) were not clearly visible in the 15-min data but appeared to remain neutral.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dipped below 30 during the selloff to 0.00808, reaching a low of 28.3, but failed to trigger a rebound. This indicated an oversold condition without a clear reversal. The MACD turned negative during the bearish phase and remained bearish until the final 4 hours, when it flattened, hinting at a potential consolidation period. The histogram showed a gradual decline in bearish momentum, suggesting possible equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained relatively wide during the initial 12 hours but contracted significantly after 05:00 ET, with the 20-period band narrowing by 18%. This contraction suggested a potential breakout event in the near term. Price traded inside the lower Bollinger Band during the 17:00–21:00 ET window, with the closing candle at 0.00842 sitting just above the 20-period MA and within the band.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the bearish breakdown, with the largest candle at 17:45 ET showing 923,940.1 USDC traded, and another at 19:45 ET with 1,221,287.4 USDC. Turnover also surged during these periods, confirming the breakdown in price. However, volume declined sharply in the final 4 hours, with several candles showing near-zero volume, indicating a pause in trading activity. Notably, price action during these hours showed divergence from volume—while price remained in a tight range, volume was muted, suggesting lack of conviction on either side.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 0.00808 to 0.00851, the 61.8% level (0.00831) was reached by the close, with price showing slight resistance just above 0.00845 (38.2% level). For the broader daily swing from October 30 to 31, the 50% retracement level aligned with 0.0083, which was tested twice with mixed results. A potential 78.6% retracement level (0.00866) may serve as a near-term ceiling in a bullish scenario.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for REZUSDC could be built using the RSI as a trigger, with long entries when RSI exceeds 70 and short entries when it drops below 30. Given the 24-hour data, the RSI crossed below 30 during the sharp selloff to 0.00808, which could have triggered a long position with a 5% stop-loss at 0.00768. However, the market failed to reverse immediately, highlighting the need for a longer time frame or a combination of RSI and volume to confirm the signal. Using REZUSDC as a test case, a backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-31 could help quantify the viability of this strategy under varying market conditions.