Market Overview for Renzo/USD Coin on 2025-09-05

• Price rose sharply from 0.01087 to 0.01152 on 24-hour candle.
• RSI reached overbought territory, suggesting potential near-term pullback.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating heightened volatility.
• Volume spiked during late night into morning ET, confirming upward price action.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed during overnight session.

Renzo/USD Coin (REZUSDC) opened at 0.01087 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.01152 and a low of 0.01077, and closed at 0.01137 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 6,393,922.5, with a turnover of approximately $71,582 (assuming USDC as USD).

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were observed around 0.01086–0.01087, holding during early morning pullbacks. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged from 0.01117 to 0.01137, signaling a potential reversal from downward to upward momentum. The price found resistance briefly at 0.01152 before consolidating. A potential consolidation pattern is forming between 0.01131 and 0.01152, which may lead to a breakout or reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the early hours of the morning, confirming a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the price closed above the 50-period MA but remains below the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting a potential long-term buying opportunity if the 100-period MA is tested.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line during the late night session, reinforcing the bullish bias. RSI reached a peak of 70 by midday, indicating overbought conditions and increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction. A divergence was observed between RSI and price action during the 06:45–07:15 ET window, suggesting caution for further bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly overnight, reaching a width of over 0.0006, reflecting heightened volatility. Price traded near the upper band during the morning surge, while closing the session just below the upper band, suggesting strong momentum but with caution for overbought levels. A contraction of the bands is expected after the expansion, possibly leading to a period of consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the early morning hours, particularly between 04:00–06:00 ET, coinciding with a rapid price increase. This volume surge confirms the bullish breakout. However, a decline in volume was observed after 10:00 ET, signaling possible exhaustion in the bullish move. Turnover aligned with volume spikes, with significant notional value traded during the price surge.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the overnight swing from 0.01077 to 0.01152, the 61.8% retrace level is at 0.01116, which was briefly tested and rejected. The 78.6% retrace level at 0.01130 may act as a potential target for further upside or a consolidation zone. Daily-level retracements from the broader range highlight the 0.01087 level as a critical support area.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on identifying bullish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute timeframe and entering long positions when the close exceeds the high of the engulfing candle. This was observed in the overnight move from 0.01117 to 0.01137, where a clear engulfing pattern confirmed a breakout. The strategy also incorporates RSI divergence as a filter; however, a divergence occurred on the 06:45–07:15 ET candles, potentially signaling a false signal. A successful backtest would require confirming volume spikes and Bollinger Band expansion as additional filters to improve signal quality.