Market Overview for Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT)

• Price dropped 4.7% over 24 hours, forming a bearish reversal pattern near 4.05
• RSI hit oversold territory, indicating potential bounce but weak buying interest
• Volume surged during the decline but faded as price approached 3.94, suggesting distribution
• Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility with price near the lower band
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at 3.96–3.98 may trigger short-covering or further bearish momentum

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14, Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) opened at $4.044, hit a high of $4.06, and closed at $3.951 after a 24-hour low of $3.913. Total traded volume was 518,509.26, with turnover amounting to $2,054,960.71. The pair has seen a clear bearish bias, with price breaking below key support levels and failing to reclaim recent highs.

Structure & Formations

The price action shows a clear breakdown from the 4.04–4.06 resistance cluster, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming around 4.04–4.032. A deep bearish candle at 3.988–3.944 confirmed distribution. A small bullish reversal candle at 3.948–3.959 and a doji at 3.966–3.945 suggest potential short-covering or a temporary pause in the downtrend. Key support levels now sit at 3.945 (tested twice) and 3.913 (24-hour low). Resistance is likely at 3.96–3.98 and then 3.99–4.01.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows price below the 20-period (3.975) and 50-period (3.982) SMAs, reinforcing bearish momentum. Daily moving averages show price is well below the 50SMA (4.04), 100SMA (4.06), and 200SMA (4.08), indicating a medium-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD is bearish, with the histogram expanding into negative territory and the line below the signal. RSI has entered oversold territory at 27, but without a strong follow-through rally, this could be a false signal. Momentum appears to be exhausting, with MACD diverging slightly from price as RSI fails to rebound despite a few minor bounces.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded during the downtrend, with price testing the lower band at 3.94–3.96 before finding support. The recent bounce coincided with a contraction in band width, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. However, without a clear close above the midline (3.98), the bearish bias remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 18:00–19:45 ET sell-off, reaching a peak of 97,908. However, the last two hours saw a sharp volume drop despite a 1.4% rally, indicating weak buying. Turnover also declined during this rally, suggesting lack of conviction in the upward move. This divergence between price and volume implies further consolidation or a test of 3.913 is likely.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent high (4.06) to low (3.913) suggest key levels at 3.964 (38.2%), 3.942 (50%), and 3.923 (61.8%). Price is currently consolidating around the 3.94–3.96 range, which overlaps with the 38.2% and 50% levels. A break above 3.96 could trigger a test of the 3.98–4.00 zone, but a retest of 3.913 appears a higher probability scenario in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a break below the 3.96 Fibonacci level, with a stop just above the 3.98–4.00 cluster and a target at 3.91–3.88. This approach aligns with the observed bearish divergence in MACD and the lack of buying volume on recent bounces. RSI’s oversold reading could act as a false signal, but it may also reflect exhaustion of the downtrend. A counter-strategy could involve a long position on a close above 3.98, but with a small position size due to the high probability of further bearish momentum.