Market Overview: Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary

• Price action saw a sharp decline from 3.716 to 3.425 over the past 24 hours.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold territory.
• Volatility remained elevated, with Bollinger Bands widening on the 15-minute chart.
• Volume increased during the bearish breakdown below key support at 3.610.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 3.505 and 3.610 appear to be key levels of interest.

The Render/Tether pair (RENDERUSDT) opened at 3.64 on October 3 at 16:00 ET, surged to a high of 3.741, and then dropped sharply to a low of 3.425 before closing at 3.48 on October 4 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, total volume reached 970,455.33 and turnover amounted to approximately $3,379,238. The price action suggests bearish pressure following key resistance breaks and a failure to reclaim previous levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near 3.716 on October 3, confirming a shift in momentum. The breakdown below 3.610 and 3.505 levels saw strong sell pressure, with no signs of immediate buying. A long lower shadow was observed at 3.425, suggesting a possible short-term floor. The 3.48–3.513 range appears to be a potential area of interest for buyers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with price consistently below both. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) show a broader bearish trend, with the 100- and 200-day averages still above current levels, indicating a continuation of the bear phase.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped below 30 during the early hours of October 4, signaling oversold conditions. However, the MACD remained bearish throughout the 24-hour period, with both the histogram and signal line trending downward. These indicators suggest a lack of near-term bullish momentum, with a possible bounce but limited upside potential.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute chart expanded as volatility increased during the sharp sell-off. Price spent much of the session below the 20-period lower band, indicating heightened bearish control. A contraction in band width may precede a potential rebound, though the current setup favors a continuation of the downward trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown below 3.610 and 3.505, with a notable increase in turnover during the 03:00–05:00 ET window. Price and volume moved in tandem during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum. No major divergences were observed, suggesting volume remains supportive of the downward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels at 3.505 and 3.610 were tested and broken during the 24-hour period. The 61.8% level at 3.505 provided some initial resistance before being taken out, while 3.610 acted as a strong support-turned-resistance. The next key Fibonacci level to watch is 3.581, which may offer a potential short-term ceiling.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when a bearish engulfing pattern is confirmed and price breaks below the 3.610 support. A stop-loss is placed above the 3.650 level, with a target of 3.450. Given the recent price action and volume confirmation of the breakdown, this setup may have had a high probability of success over the 24-hour period. The 3.610 level previously held as a key support, and its breach was followed by a sharp decline to 3.425, validating the strategy's assumptions. A trailing stop could have been used after the 3.505 level was retested, capturing a portion of the bearish move.