Market Overview for Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price opened at $3.672, dropped to $3.403, and closed near $3.487 amid elevated volume and turnover.
• A bearish breakdown occurred during the early morning ET, followed by a rebound into oversold RSI territory.
• Volatility expanded midday, with price trading within Bollinger Bands and testing Fibonacci levels.
• A key 15-minute engulfing pattern and doji signaled indecision and potential trend reversals.
• Turnover spiked during the early morning selloff and again during the post-noon recovery, suggesting active trading.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24, Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) opened at $3.672 and reached a high of $3.681 and a low of $3.403, closing at $3.487 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. Total volume was 933,462.03, with notional turnover of $3,206,729.84. Price action reflected a significant bearish move early, followed by a partial recovery.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish breakdown during the 15-minute period starting at 02:45 ET, with a sharp drop to $3.403. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed at that point. Later, at 06:15–06:30 ET, a doji signaled potential indecision and the start of a recovery. Support levels formed near $3.455 and $3.403, while resistance emerged at $3.492 and $3.516 during the late morning and early afternoon.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages diverged significantly during the bearish phase, with the 20-period MA crossing below the 50-period MA into a death cross. This reversed later as price rebounded. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) indicated a long-term bearish bias, with price trading below all three.

MACD & RSI

The RSI reached oversold territory at 27 during the early morning selloff, then recovered to neutral levels. MACD showed a bearish crossover during the initial drop, followed by a bullish divergence as price rebounded. Momentum suggests traders may be preparing for a potential short-term reversal, though bearish pressure remains.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early morning, with price hitting the lower Bollinger Band as the $3.403 low was formed. Later in the morning, price moved toward the middle band, suggesting stabilization. A breakout above the upper band at $3.516 could confirm bullish momentum, but the current setup remains range-bound within the band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 02:45 ET during the bearish breakdown, with a $3.403 low being formed, and again during the post-noon rebound. Turnover increased in tandem, with a large 15-minute turnover of $1,079,440.84 at 12:30 ET, suggesting strong participation in both bearish and bullish phases. Divergence between volume and price during the 04:30–05:00 ET period indicated potential indecision.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from $3.681 to $3.403, key retracement levels at 61.8% ($3.496) and 78.6% ($3.545) were tested. Price found short-term resistance near $3.496 during the 13:30–13:45 ET period, while the 50% retracement at $3.542 remained untested in the final hours. Daily Fibonacci levels on the broader trend show continued bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below the 20-period MA, with a stop-loss placed just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Long positions could be triggered on a bullish divergence in RSI and a break above the upper Bollinger Band, with a target at the 50% retracement level. The strategy should be tested over multiple 15-minute cycles to account for false signals from volatility spikes.