Market Overview for Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) – 2025-10-22

• Price declined from 2.70 to 2.445 over 24 hours, with bearish momentum intensifying after 20:30 ET.
• Volatility expanded sharply on the way down, with a 10.5% drop from high to low and price testing key Fibonacci levels.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed near 2.69, followed by a 15-minute close below 2.63, confirming a reversal.
• Turnover increased during the downward phase, with the largest single-candle volume of 99,904.27 at 22:45 ET.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly as price approached the 2.46–2.53 consolidation range, indicating potential for a retest.

The price of Render/Tether (RENDERUSDT) opened at 2.657 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 2.70 before closing at 2.445 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-22. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 3,089,814.04, with a notional turnover of approximately $7.7 million. The decline was marked by a series of bearish patterns and increasing bearish momentum.

On the 15-minute chart, price broke below the 2.63 psychological support, which had previously acted as a floor during consolidation. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 2.69, followed by a deep retest and breakdown. A bearish divergence was also observed in the RSI, with price lows below prior lows but RSI failing to confirm. This divergence heightened the bearish case for the pair. The 20-period moving average provided no resistance, as price continued to fall below it through the night.

Volatility surged as price broke down from 2.63, with Bollinger Bands expanding significantly by 22:30 ET. By 00:00 ET on 2025-10-22, price had fallen into a prior consolidation range at 2.46–2.53, with the 2.47 level acting as immediate support. Fibonacci retracement levels showed price approaching the 61.8% level of the prior 2.65–2.70 rally at 2.46. The 2.44 level now appears to be a critical test for further bearish continuation.

The MACD line showed a bearish crossover early in the breakdown, confirming the shift in momentum. As the session progressed, bearish divergence continued to build in RSI, which failed to rise above 40 despite price attempts at consolidation. The 50-period moving average, currently at 2.58, may offer limited resistance if price attempts a short-term rebound. However, with the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both in bearish alignment, a retest of the 2.39–2.40 level seen in prior bear phases is a plausible continuation target.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy hinges on identifying oversold RSI conditions in the 14-period RSI series for Render/Tether, with the goal of validating whether a "hold until RSI exit" strategy would have yielded positive returns between 2022-01-01 and 2025-10-22. However, due to the recent data provider error encountered with the ticker symbol (RENDERUSDT), the RSI data could not be retrieved. The most likely cause is a mismatch in ticker formatting or exchange identifier. To proceed with the backtest, it is crucial to confirm the exact exchange and symbol—such as "BINANCE:RNDRUSDT"—or provide a user-generated RSI dataset. Once validated, the backtest can be executed, producing performance metrics and visual results to evaluate the strategy's robustness.