Market Overview: REI Network/Tether (REIUSDT) – 2025-10-04

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• REIUSDT traded in a narrow range early before surging to $0.01666 midday, followed by consolidation and a pullback to $0.01604 by 04:30 ET.
• Momentum showed mixed signals, with RSI briefly hitting overbought and oversold levels but failing to confirm with volume.
• Volatility expanded during the midday breakout, with a 2.8% high-low range on a 4.1% volume surge.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 16:45 ET before price reversed, and a bearish evening star appeared near the 24-hour high.
• Divergences between price and turnover were observed during the overnight consolidation, suggesting weakening conviction.

24-Hour Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, REI Network/Tether (REIUSDT) traded at $0.0162, down from the opening price of $0.01606 at 12:00 ET-1. The pair reached a high of $0.01668 and a low of $0.01604 during the period. Total volume amounted to 26,371,853.0 REI, with a notional turnover of $426,971.60.

Structure & Formations

REIUSDT experienced a key bullish breakout at 16:45 ET, with price surging from $0.01624 to $0.01666 on a massive volume spike of 4,440,620.7 REI. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at this point, indicating a potential short-term reversal. However, the subsequent bearish evening star pattern near $0.01668 failed to follow through, suggesting uncertainty in the move.

Support levels are forming around $0.0162–$0.0163, with a critical line at $0.01604. Resistance appears at $0.01645–$0.01650. A doji at 04:30 ET near $0.01606 suggests a potential pause in bearish momentum.

Moving Averages & MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been in a tight convergence, supporting the low-volatility trend until the midday breakout. The 50-period MA crossed above the 20-period MA midday, confirming a bullish bias that lasted for about three hours.

MACD showed a strong positive divergence during the breakout, but the histogram began to contract by 19:00 ET, indicating a potential loss of upward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, but price is trading slightly below both, suggesting a weakening trend.

RSI, Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci

RSI reached 72 (overbought) at 17:00 ET but failed to sustain above that level, indicating a lack of conviction in the bullish move. It later dropped to 28 (oversold) by 04:30 ET, but again without a strong bounce in price.

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction before the midday breakout, followed by a sharp expansion. Price traded near the upper band from 16:45 to 19:00 ET but fell into the middle band by 21:00 ET.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 16:45–21:00 swing show a 61.8% level at $0.01640, which has become a minor resistance. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retest of the prior range may test support at $0.01612–$0.01615 in the coming days.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

The most significant volume spike occurred at 16:45 ET, with 4,440,620.7 REI traded as the price surged to $0.01666. This was followed by a rapid decline in volume despite a price pullback, indicating a lack of follow-through buying. Conversely, during the overnight consolidation, turnover remained subdued despite a 1.1% decline in price, suggesting bearish exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy suggests using a 20-period EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI confirmation (RSI > 60 for long entries, RSI < 40 for short entries), to filter trades during high volatility periods like the midday breakout. This approach would have triggered a long entry at 16:45 ET, but the subsequent bearish reversal would have prompted an early exit. A trailing stop at 1.5% would have captured the initial gain but limited exposure to the pullback.