Market Overview for Raydium/Tether USDt (RAYUSDT): A 24-Hour Technical Breakdown

• Raydium/Tether USDt (RAYUSDT) traded in a tight range, closing near 3.257 after a midday rebound attempt.
• Key support held at 3.25–3.26, with resistance capped at 3.28–3.29 during the session.
• Volatility dipped late in the session, with volume tapering off after the 05:00 ET high.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions temporarily, but momentum failed to confirm a strong breakout.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction, signaling a potential reversal or breakout in the next 24 hours.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-06, RAYUSDT opened at 3.281, reached a high of 3.308, a low of 3.247, and closed at 3.257. Total volume for the 24-hour window stood at 1,023,468.8 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $3.25M.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key support cluster between 3.25 and 3.26, which held firm multiple times, particularly in the late hours of the session. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 02:15 ET as the pair closed lower than the prior candle’s open after hitting 3.303. This suggested a shift in sentiment. A morning bullish hammer near 03:45 ET hinted at a potential bounce, but failed to trigger a sustained move above 3.29. A doji at 05:30 ET, as price tested 3.268, highlighted indecision and may signal a pause in the near-term direction.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained above the price, indicating a bearish bias in the shorter term. The daily 50/100/200 EMA structure shows a converging trend with the 50 EMA above the 100 and 200 EMA, suggesting a potential for a retest of the 3.23–3.24 level, especially if current support breaks.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a weak crossover with the signal line, failing to confirm a strong bearish or bullish momentum. RSI peaked above 60 during the early morning hours and then declined, indicating a temporary overbought condition without follow-through volume. This suggests that the rally was not driven by strong conviction and may be vulnerable to a pullback. A retest of the 50 RSI level may signal a new equilibrium.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a contraction in volatility during the 04:00–06:00 ET window, as the upper and lower bands narrowed and the price consolidated between 3.25 and 3.27. The current close at 3.257 sits just above the lower band, suggesting that a breakout below could trigger further downside risk. The contraction may precede a breakout, either to the upside if bulls regain control or to the downside if bears maintain pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 05:15–06:00 ET window, coinciding with a failed attempt to break above 3.29. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at the same time. However, price did not hold the highs, suggesting bearish divergence. Conversely, volume tailed off after 07:00 ET, indicating reduced interest in the pair. This quiet trading environment could precede a breakout or a continuation of consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 3.247 to 3.308, the 38.2% retracement level sits at 3.28 and the 61.8% level at 3.264. The current close at 3.257 is near the 61.8% retracement, suggesting a possible area of interest for near-term traders. A breakdown below 3.264 could target the 3.25–3.24 zone, while a retest of 3.28 may see resistance from the 38.2% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy relies on identifying bearish engulfing patterns confirmed by a breakout below the pattern’s low, followed by a trailing stop loss. This aligns with the 02:15 ET candle, which formed a bearish engulfing pattern and was followed by a decline below 3.28. A backtest using this strategy would need to confirm the pattern with volume and RSI divergence to avoid false signals. The current market structure supports this approach, especially in a volatile and consolidating market like RAYUSDT.