Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT)

• RAYUSDT declined sharply from $1.853 to $1.65, with oversold RSI suggesting potential reversal.
• Volatility surged after a consolidation phase, with volume spiking during the 1.80–1.75 range break.
• Key support at $1.70 tested multiple times; resistance appears at $1.80 after failed attempts.
• Bollinger Bands indicate high volatility, with price near the lower band for much of the session.
• MACD divergence hints at momentum waning, while Fibonacci levels suggest possible retracement targets.

24-Hour Market Summary

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at $1.81 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET and closed at $1.65 by the same time on 2025-10-30. The pair reached a high of $1.853 and a low of $1.65 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 2,485,419 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $4.28 million. This sharp decline was accompanied by increased volatility and a notable volume surge during the $1.75–$1.80 consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a strong bearish bias, with a broad descending triangle formation forming as the asset moved from a high of $1.853 to a low of $1.65. Notable candlestick patterns included a long black candle during the 18:45–19:00 ET session, signaling bearish exhaustion, and several hanging man formations near $1.70 and $1.75, hinting at potential reversals. A key support level appears at $1.65–$1.70, while resistance is likely to retest $1.75 and $1.80 in the near term.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have diverged significantly, with the 20-period line falling below the 50-period line, indicating a bearish crossover. The 50-period MA has been a key resistance level for most of the session, and the price has remained below it for the majority of the 24-hour window. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at ~$1.80 and the 200-period MA near $1.78, suggesting a potential retest of the 50-period level as a critical pivot.

MACD and RSI Behavior

The MACD has turned negative and remains below the signal line, indicating continued bearish momentum. A bearish divergence emerged in the final 4 hours of the session, with price making higher lows while the MACD made lower lows. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory, dipping below 30 at times, which may signal a near-term potential reversal. However, the RSI has failed to cross back above 40, suggesting that momentum remains on the bearish side despite the oversold condition.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the 18:45–23:45 ET timeframe, with the Bollinger Bands widening as the price dropped sharply. The asset spent most of the session near the lower band, indicating high volatility and bearish pressure. A retest of the upper band near $1.75 is likely if the price rebounds from current support levels, but a failure to close above the middle band could confirm a deeper bearish trend.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked sharply during the 18:45–19:45 ET session, with the largest single candle (18:45–19:00 ET) recording a volume of 336,644.8 and a price drop of $0.083. This suggests significant selling pressure. Turnover and volume diverged slightly in the final 6 hours, with volume decreasing even as the price continued to fall. This divergence could indicate exhausted bearish momentum and a potential near-term reversal, but caution is warranted until a clear bullish candle structure emerges.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 24-hour move from $1.853 to $1.65, the key retracement levels are at $1.754 (38.2%), $1.704 (50%), and $1.656 (61.8%). The price has found support at $1.656 and $1.704, with a potential target for a short-term bounce near $1.754 if the RSI shows a strong reversal. A break above $1.80 would suggest a resumption of the bullish trend, while a break below $1.656 could extend the bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current RSI oversold conditions, a backtest of an RSI-based strategy could provide meaningful insight into potential entry points. Using a 14-period RSI, we could enter long positions when RSI < 30 and exit when RSI > 50 or after 15 calendar days, whichever comes first. Additional safeguards, such as a 5% stop-loss and 10% take-profit, could be applied to manage risk. Testing this strategy on RAYUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-30 would help validate its efficacy in this volatile market environment.