Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) - 24-Hour Summary

• RAYUSDT fell 4.7% in 24 hours, closing near key support at $2.80–2.85.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with RSI below 30 indicating oversold conditions.
• Volatility dropped near Bollinger Band midline, with price consolidation below 20SMA.
• Volume spiked during late-night bearish breakdown, confirming bearish sentiment.
• Fibonacci levels at 2.83–2.88 could dictate near-term price direction on a rebound.

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at $3.002 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.803 by October 4 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $3.063 to $2.801, with total volume of 1,663,988.4 and turnover of $4,742,437. Price action was bearish, with a clear breakdown below key support levels and weak recovery attempts.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours formed a bearish breakdown pattern, with a strong move below the 2.90 level and consolidation near $2.80–2.85. A bearish engulfing pattern formed after the 5:45 AM ET candle closed at $2.917, signaling a shift in momentum. A potential double-bottom formation is emerging at the $2.80–2.85 level, where price may find temporary support for a bounce. A bearish key reversal pattern formed after the 1:00 AM ET candle, confirming a breakdown below prior support. A series of long lower shadows suggests buyers attempted to defend the 2.85–2.88 level but failed to reverse the trend.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both show bearish alignment, with the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA, confirming a short-term bearish trend. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is at $2.95, while the 200-period MA is near $3.02, indicating a strong bearish bias for the near term. Price remains below both 50SMA and 200SMA, suggesting continuation of the downtrend unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD indicator shows bearish divergence, with the histogram declining through the 15-minute and daily timeframes. RSI is in oversold territory at 28, suggesting that a short-term bounce could be imminent, though this may be a false signal in a strong downtrend. A bearish crossover in the MACD line below the signal line on both the daily and 15-minute charts confirms bearish momentum. RSI remains below 30 for much of the period, highlighting continued selling pressure and lack of buying interest.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has contracted over the past 24 hours, with price hovering near the midline of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting consolidation after a sharp bearish move. The bands have narrowed significantly, indicating a potential breakout scenario. If price breaks below the lower band, it could signal a continuation of the bearish trend. The current price is below the 20-period Bollinger Band midline, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night bearish breakdown, with the 1:00 AM ET candle showing a large volume of 90,824.5 at a closing price of $2.882, confirming the bearish breakout. Turnover increased during this period, aligning with the price action. There is some divergence between price and volume in the morning hours, as price failed to make a strong rebound despite moderate volume, suggesting a lack of conviction in the upside. Turnover has remained above $100k in most of the key bearish candles, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $3.063 to $2.801, key levels at 2.83 (23.6%), 2.88 (38.2%), and 2.92 (50%) are critical for near-term price direction. A bounce from the 23.6% level at $2.83 could trigger a short-term rally, but a breakdown below the 2.80 level would target 2.75–2.70. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at $2.88 could serve as a short-term floor if bulls regain control.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be built around bearish engulfing and key reversal patterns on the 15-minute chart, paired with RSI oversold readings. Entries could be triggered after a confirmed breakdown of the 20SMA with a stop above the 20-period Bollinger Band high. A fixed target could be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, or alternatively, at the next significant support level. This strategy would focus on capturing short-term bearish momentum in a consolidating downtrend, with tight stop-loss placement near recent swing highs.