Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-10-11 12:00 ET

• Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) declined sharply from $2.55 to $1.41 amid a massive sell-off in early ET hours.
• Volatility surged as price dropped 44% in a single candle, suggesting significant bearish momentum.
• Rebound attempts are weak, with price failing to break above $1.95, indicating fragile demand.
• RSI is oversold (<30), but price remains under pressure, pointing to possible further correction. • Turnover spiked during the sell-off, confirming the bearish move, though volume has since normalized.

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at $2.529 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.551, and fell to a low of $1.407 before closing at $1.954 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading volume totaled approximately 31,511,271.0 and the notional turnover reached $63,993,334.00, reflecting a volatile and high-activity session.

Structure & Formations

The price action was dominated by a sharp bearish breakdown, marked by a massive engulfing bearish candle on 2025-10-10 at 21:00 ET. This candle gapped down from $2.456 to close at $2.26, followed by a continuation of selling pressure. Key support levels are forming around $1.95–$1.96 and $1.92–$1.93, where multiple bullish reversal candles appear. Notable resistance remains at $2.00–$2.05, where the price has previously failed to break above following bounce attempts. A bearish engulfing pattern confirmed the downtrend, while a doji at $1.954 suggests indecision and potential short-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price remains below key moving averages (20-period and 50-period), reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA at ~$1.97 and the 20-period MA at ~$1.98 act as dynamic resistance. On a daily basis, the 50-day MA (~$2.10), 100-day MA (~$2.15), and 200-day MA (~$2.18) sit well above the current price, indicating a long-term bearish trend. The price is significantly oversold relative to its historical average and remains far from these key bullish thresholds.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has entered oversold territory (~28), but price has failed to show a convincing bounce, suggesting the decline may not be near its end. MACD is in negative territory with bearish divergence, as the histogram remains below the signal line. Both indicators confirm bearish momentum and suggest that further correction to key support levels is likely before any meaningful bullish reversal could take shape.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically during the initial sell-off, with the lower Bollinger band dropping below $1.36. Following this, volatility has compressed again, with the price trading within a narrower range around $1.95–$1.98. The current price is near the upper band at ~$1.98, suggesting a potential retest of this level before bearish pressure resumes. The band width is now in a contraction phase, hinting at a possible breakout or breakdown in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sell-off, especially on the 21:00 ET candle, where 510,289.1 contracts were traded, far above the 24-hour average. This was confirmed by a sharp spike in notional turnover. However, volume has since normalized, with recent candles showing average trading activity. The lack of follow-through buying pressure, despite RSI hitting oversold levels, suggests the market may be waiting for a catalyst before resuming higher.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute move from $2.48 to $1.407, key levels include 38.2% at $1.88 and 61.8% at $2.01. The price has stalled near the 61.8% level, which is also close to the 20-period MA. A break below the 38.2% level could push the price toward $1.88, while a break above $2.01 could test the 50-period MA and potentially trigger a short-term bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed volatility and the potential for a short-term reversal near key Fibonacci and MA levels, a viable backtest strategy could involve a long position on a bullish breakout above $2.00 with a stop-loss below $1.95. This approach leverages the convergence of key technical indicators, including RSI, MACD, and moving averages, to filter for higher-probability setups. The strategy would also incorporate a trailing stop to capture potential upside momentum while managing downside risk during any unexpected pullbacks.