Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-09-26 12:00 ET

• RAYUSDT opened at 2.646 and traded between 2.501 and 2.65 before closing at 2.558.
• Price fell sharply below the 20-period MA, indicating bearish momentum and overextended RSI.
• Volatility expanded during the drop, with price testing multiple key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart.
• High volume confirmed the breakdown, but late recovery hints at potential near-term consolidation.
• A test of the 2.55–2.57 support zone will likely determine the near-term trend direction.

RAYUSDT opened at 2.646 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET, reached a high of 2.65, and closed at 2.558 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The 24-hour period saw heavy bearish pressure, with price falling nearly 4% and volume reaching 1,116,658.0 units. The total notional turnover amounted to 2,866,763.16 USDT, with notable divergence between volume and price seen in late afternoon and early morning sessions.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a series of bearish engulfing patterns and a key breakdown candle during the 2025-09-25 18:00–19:15 window, signaling a shift in sentiment. A sharp drop from 2.613 to 2.512 confirmed a breakdown below the prior 15-minute consolidation range. Notable support levels emerged at 2.53–2.55, with price rebounding twice in the final 6 hours of the period, suggesting near-term relevance for the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 15-minute 20SMA and 50SMA both crossed below price during the drop, reinforcing bearish momentum. The MACD showed a wide bearish divergence with price, while RSI entered oversold territory (under 30), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, RSI remains flattened, indicating weak follow-through buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Price traded near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands for much of the session, with a notable expansion in volatility observed during the 18:00–19:15 window. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 2.613–2.512 swing showed key 50% and 61.8% levels at 2.566 and 2.538, respectively. Price is currently hovering near the 61.8% retracement level, with the 50% level acting as a potential near-term resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 18:00–19:15 window, confirming the breakdown. However, the following 3–4 hours saw relatively muted volume despite price action bouncing back, suggesting weak conviction in the rebound. Notional turnover mirrored volume patterns, with a major peak during the breakdown and smaller peaks during late-session attempts to retest 2.56–2.57.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes entering short positions when price breaks below a key 15-minute Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8%) with confirmation from volume expansion and bearish divergence in the MACD. Long entries would be triggered on a strong rebound above the 50SMA with RSI above 50, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. This aligns with the observed breakdown and retest patterns during the session, with the current price near a key Fibonacci and moving average confluence, making it a suitable entry point for the strategy’s next signal.