Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) – 24-Hour Action Summary

• RAYUSDT declined to a 24-hour low of 1.852 before rebounding with a late-day rally to 2.048.
• Key support levels formed near 1.85–1.87, with resistance emerging at 1.98–2.02.
• High volatility seen post-19:45 ET, with volume spiking above 100,000 at 1.90–1.95.
• RSI hit oversold levels below 30 early, later confirming bearish momentum before a reversal.
• Bollinger Band contractions occurred mid-morning, expanding as the rally progressed.

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at 1.981 on October 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 2.048 as of 12:00 ET October 12. The pair reached a high of 2.056 and a low of 1.852 over the period. Total volume traded stood at approximately 3,687,756.5, with a notional turnover of $6,368,064.96.

The price action featured a bearish breakdown from key resistance at 1.98–2.02, breaking down to 1.85–1.87 before a powerful reversal took hold. A morning bear trap formed around 1.98–1.99, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 19:45 ET signaling further weakness. However, a strong rally post 15:00 ET October 12 began forming bullish structures, including a bullish engulfing at 2.018 and a 2.048 high on high-volume confirmation. Key support levels at 1.85–1.87 and 1.90–1.92 were retested, showing resilience.

The RSI indicator hit oversold territory at 30, signaling potential for a reversal, which coincided with the rebound from 1.852. MACD lines crossed into positive territory as the rally gained momentum, confirming bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands compressed mid-morning before expanding as the price surged, indicating increased volatility and trend continuation potential. A 20/50 EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart occurred around 20:00 ET, supporting the bearish phase, while a subsequent 50/20 crossover after 15:00 ET reinforced the bullish reversal.

Fibonacci retracement levels played a key role in the price action. The 61.8% level at 1.911 acted as a minor support, while the 1.98–2.02 area aligned with the 38.2% retracement level from the 2.056 high. The rally from 1.852 to 2.048 hit the 61.8% retracement zone on the rebound, suggesting a potential consolidation area. Daily traders may look to these levels for potential mean reversion or continuation setups.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves a 15-minute timeframe trade setup based on EMA crossovers and RSI confirmation. A long entry is triggered when the 20 EMA crosses above the 50 EMA and RSI exits the oversold zone below 30. A stop loss is placed just below the previous swing low, while the take-profit target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach seeks to capture short-term rebounds after a bearish breakdown. Given the recent price behavior, this strategy could validate the post-1.852 rally as a valid mean reversion trade with strong risk-reward potential.