Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) on 2025-10-26

• RAYUSDT rallied 5.17% in 24 hours, closing at 1.897 after a bullish breakout above 1.866.
• RSI surged past 70, indicating overbought conditions, while volume spiked to 86,754.
• Price moved in a tight range from 1.766 to 1.799 before a sharp upswing confirmed a bullish reversal.
• MACD histogram turned positive, and price traded near the upper Bollinger Band, showing strong volatility.
• Fibonacci retracement of the earlier decline showed 1.866 and 1.838 as key psychological levels.

24-Hour Price Movement and Volume Summary

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at 1.77 on 2025-10-25 at 12:00 ET, and surged to a high of 1.898 before settling at 1.897 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-26. The 24-hour range was 1.766–1.898, with total volume of 582,136.9 and turnover (notional value) at $1,088,162.00. Price action accelerated after 09:30 ET, with a sharp move above 1.838 and 1.866 levels that signaled a shift in sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a key bullish engulfing pattern near 1.838 on 09:30 ET, followed by a strong continuation above the 1.866 level. A doji appeared at 1.803 around 02:00 ET, indicating indecision after an earlier bearish phase. Key resistance levels are now at 1.898, 1.920, and 1.950, while 1.866 and 1.838 serve as immediate support.

15-Minute Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, RAYUSDT closed above the 20 and 50-period moving averages. The 20-period MA was at 1.854 and the 50-period MA at 1.847, both of which were decisively breached following the late-night break above 1.838. This suggests a continuation of bullish momentum in the short term.

MACD and RSI Momentum

MACD turned positive with a strong histogram indicating growing bullish momentum. RSI surged to 72, nearing overbought territory, confirming the strength of the recent rally. While overbought conditions may hint at a potential pullback, the divergence between RSI and price has not yet shown a bearish sign.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly in the last 6 hours, with price reaching the upper Bollinger Band at 1.898. The bands were wide, indicating a breakout is in progress. The 15-minute bands showed a contraction before the surge, suggesting a setup for a strong move.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 09:30–10:45 ET session, with the largest single candle contributing $169,285.00 in turnover. Notional value exceeded $1,088,162.00 over the last 24 hours. Volume and price were aligned during the breakout phase, offering strong confirmation of the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent bearish swing from 1.898 to 1.838 was followed by a strong recovery. Key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% (1.866) and 61.8% (1.838) acted as psychological barriers. The 1.898 level is now the 100% projection, suggesting a potential target if the bullish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the RSI nearing overbought levels and the strong volume confirmation during the breakout, a backtest strategy could be formulated using RSI as a key entry signal. A potential backtest hypothesis would involve entering long positions when RSI crosses above 70 and exiting when it falls below 60. Holding periods could be set for 5 trading days or until a key Fibonacci level is breached. Stop-loss levels could be placed just below 1.866, while take-profit targets might target 1.920 or 1.950. This aligns well with the recent price action and could be tested on historical data from the past 6–12 months to validate its effectiveness.