Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) – 2025-10-03

• RAYUSDT surged 2.98–3.06 before consolidating, showing strong bullish momentum and volume in the early session.
• A key resistance at 3.06 was tested, with a failed breakout confirmed by bearish reversal candles and diverging volume.
• Volatility remained elevated, with Bollinger Bands expanding and RSI hovering near overbought territory for much of the session.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 3.02 and 2.96 offered partial support, with price consolidating between these levels by close.

The RAYUSDT pair opened at 2.919 on 2025-10-02 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 3.06 by 19:15 ET. It closed the 24-hour window at 2.958, with total volume of 1,635,134.2 and turnover of $4,846,502.6. The price action reflected a volatile and bullish start, followed by a bearish consolidation as resistance levels failed to hold.

Structure and formations revealed a strong bullish impulse from 2.94 to 3.06, marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared near the high of 3.06, confirming pressure to sell. A doji at 3.059 and a bearish spinning top at 3.052 suggested indecision and exhaustion among buyers. Key support levels were identified at 3.02 and 2.96, both of which held during retracements.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bullish, with the 20-period MA above the 50-period MA. However, by the end of the 24-hour window, both MAs had begun to flatten, indicating weakening momentum. The daily chart showed the price above both the 50-period and 200-period MAs, supporting a longer-term bullish bias.

The MACD crossed into overbought territory early in the session, confirming the strength of the bullish move. RSI reached 72 before pulling back, indicating overbought conditions. A bearish divergence formed between RSI and price in the last 6 hours, suggesting potential for a correction. Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the bullish phase, followed by a reversion toward the lower band, indicating a period of increased volatility and subsequent consolidation.

Volume and turnover spiked during the early bullish phase, with the highest volume at 61,745.2 on the 15-minute chart at 19:15 ET. However, turnover declined after 02:00 ET, even as price continued to consolidate, signaling a potential lack of follow-through from buyers. Notable divergence between price and turnover after 02:00 ET suggests weakening conviction in the current trend.

Fibonacci retracement levels of 38.2% at 3.02 and 61.8% at 2.96 played a significant role in the price action, with the pair consolidating in that range. A deeper pullback to 2.919 (100%) would test the lower bounds of the 24-hour range and could either trigger a bounce or signal a breakdown of the bullish structure.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the observed patterns and indicator signals, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at 3.06 with a stop above 3.08 and a target at 2.96, leveraging the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence. A long entry could be considered at 2.919 with a stop below 2.89 and a target at 2.98, using the lower Fibonacci level and volume-based support. These strategies align with the observed price action, momentum indicators, and volume dynamics, offering a structured approach to capture directional bias and key reversals.