Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) as of 2025-09-25 12:00 ET

• • •

• Price action declined over 24 hours, with RAYUSDT closing below its previous 24-hour low of 2.751.
• Momentum weakened as RSI approached oversold levels, suggesting potential short-term buying interest.
• Volatility expanded during the 20:45 ET-21:00 ET window, with a high-low range of 2.784–2.768.
• Turnover spiked in the 22:00–23:00 ET range, coinciding with a drop to 2.757.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 22:00 ET, reinforcing a short-term downward bias.

Summary and Context

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at 2.811 and reached a high of 2.815 before declining to a low of 2.751. At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, the pair closed at 2.774. Over the past 24 hours, total traded volume amounted to 253,854.1 USDT, with a notional turnover of approximately $663,642 (based on RAYUSDT price). The price has shown a consistent bearish bias, with key support now forming near 2.76–2.77.

Structure & Formations

The price has formed multiple bearish patterns, including a bearish engulfing candle at 22:00 ET and a potential inside bar near 2.79. A series of lower lows and weaker closes has created a downward trendline with key resistance forming near 2.79–2.81. A potential support zone may form near 2.77–2.76 as the price has tested this range multiple times, most recently at 21:45–22:00 ET.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (2.797) is above the 50-period MA (2.789), suggesting a weakening bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is likely above the 200-period MA, reinforcing the bearish tone. Price has moved below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute timeframe, which may signal a continuation of the downward move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has remained in negative territory with a bearish crossover, confirming the downward momentum. The RSI has fallen below 30, entering oversold territory, which could attract short-term buyers. However, this does not guarantee a reversal and may simply reflect an overextended bearish move.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands have expanded in the last 12 hours, reflecting increased volatility. The current price of 2.774 is sitting near the lower band, suggesting the market is in a consolidation phase after the recent drop. A contraction of the bands could signal a period of calm before a potential breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 22:00–23:00 ET window, coinciding with the price dip to 2.757. Turnover increased in tandem with volume, indicating strong participation in the downward move. However, the divergence in volume and price during the 19:00–20:00 ET period suggests mixed sentiment, with some buyers entering as sellers stepped back.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent 15-minute swing from 2.814 (high) to 2.751 (low), key retracement levels are 2.779 (38.2%) and 2.766 (61.8%). The price has tested the 38.2% level multiple times, with potential support forming near 2.766. If the price rebounds from there, it may find its way back toward the 2.79–2.81 zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when a bearish engulfing candle forms, especially if it occurs near a key resistance level or after a bullish divergence in RSI is resolved. The strategy may close the position when the price rebounds to a Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 38.2%), where a bearish signal (e.g., bearish divergence in MACD) confirms the potential for a reversal. This approach could be refined by incorporating volume confirmation and volatility patterns for higher-probability entries.

Outlook and Risk

In the next 24 hours, RAYUSDT may test the 2.766 level as a potential pivot point, with a break below it increasing the likelihood of a move toward 2.75–2.74. However, a rebound from the 2.77–2.78 zone could initiate a short-term rally toward 2.79–2.81. Traders should remain cautious as the bearish momentum remains intact, and any bullish attempts may be short-lived without a clear reversal signal from key indicators.