Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) as of 2025-09-23

• RAYUSDT opened at $2.754, reached a high of $2.832, a low of $2.670, and closed at $2.797.
• Price surged over 10% from a 24-hour low at $2.670, driven by rising volume after 03:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded during early trading, with a key breakout above $2.780 after consolidation.
• RSI hit oversold at ~30 early, rebounded into overbought territory above 70, suggesting strong momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened as the price broke above the upper band, confirming a breakout from a tight range.

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at $2.754 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.832, a low of $2.670, and closed at $2.797 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 2.18 million contracts, with a notional turnover of $6.07 million. The pair exhibited a strong bullish bias, particularly from 03:00 ET onward, following a period of consolidation and declining volatility.

Key support levels were identified at $2.712 (touched twice) and $2.695, with resistance forming at $2.780 and $2.800. A bullish breakout above $2.780 was confirmed by a strong green candle on 03:00 ET. A notable engulfing pattern emerged at 03:30 ET after a bearish reversal pattern at $2.716. This consolidation was followed by a strong upward move. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bullish, with the 50-period line rising into alignment with the 20-period.

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The MACD crossed above the signal line at 02:45 ET, confirming bullish momentum. RSI surged from 30 (oversold) to 75 (overbought) after 03:30 ET, indicating strong buying pressure. Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction before 02:30 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke above the upper band. The price remained within the upper third of the bands for most of the session, signaling high volatility and a strong trend continuation. Volume spiked after 03:00 ET, aligning with the price breakout and confirming the strength of the move.

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A Fibonacci retracement from the low at $2.670 to the high at $2.832 highlighted key levels at 38.2% ($2.766), 50% ($2.750), and 61.8% ($2.734). The price paused briefly at the 50% level but continued upward. The 61.8% level served as a strong support, with a bounce observed at $2.734 before a rebound. For the daily chart, the 50-day moving average was at $2.755, while the 200-day was at $2.722, suggesting a bullish bias if the current trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves a breakout system that triggers long positions when price crosses above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and RSI exceeds 60. Stop-loss is placed at the recent swing low, and take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Over the 24-hour period, this strategy would have triggered an entry at $2.780 around 03:00 ET, with a stop at $2.712 and a target at $2.734. However, the subsequent price continued to $2.832, surpassing the target and offering a modified take-profit at 38.2% ($2.766) or 50% ($2.750). The strategy appears robust in high-volatility environments but risks premature exits if key Fibonacci levels are not respected.

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