Market Overview: Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) on 2025-09-20

• RAYUSDT traded in a tightening range before breaking out above prior resistance late in the session.
• Strong volume confirmed the breakout near 3.187, while RSI showed moderate momentum.
• Price closed above key psychological level 3.15 with a positive close-to-high bias.
• Volatility increased in the final 2 hours, suggesting renewed buying interest.
• No major bearish divergences observed in RSI or volume during the session.

15-Minute Chart Analysis

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at 3.158 on 2025-09-19 at 16:00 ET and closed at 3.158 by 12:00 ET the next day, with a high of 3.202 and a low of 3.118. The pair saw a total volume of 992,646.5 and turnover of $3,139,145.60 across the 24-hour window. Price action showed a strong breakout above 3.187 near the end of the session, supported by a bullish engulfing pattern and increased volume. A consolidation phase followed earlier in the day, with bearish pressure visible around 3.145, but buyers retook control after 15:30 ET.

Structure and Key Levels

The 15-minute chart displayed several key support and resistance levels. A strong support emerged at 3.145–3.147, where price found a base for several hours. Resistance at 3.187 was decisively broken, with a follow-through rally to 3.195. A doji formed near 3.187, indicating indecision but ultimately a bullish resolution. A small bullish flag pattern could be seen between 3.145 and 3.187, which was resolved with a breakout above the trendline.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed in favor of the bulls, with the 50-period line rising through the 20-period line during the breakout phase. The 20-period line was above the price at the close, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend. For daily analysis, the 50-day moving average sits above the 100-day and 200-day lines, indicating a longer-term bullish bias.

Momentum and Volatility Indicators

Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed a strong move up from 45 to 58, indicating moderate momentum without reaching overbought territory. MACD crossed into positive territory at the end of the session, with the histogram expanding, confirming bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a slight widening in the final two hours, reflecting increased volatility. Price remained close to the upper band during the breakout, suggesting strong buying pressure.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked to over 40,000 in the last four 15-minute intervals, particularly between 15:15 ET and 16:00 ET, coinciding with the breakout above 3.187. Notional turnover also increased significantly during this time, showing that the move was supported by larger positions. Price and volume aligned well during the breakout, suggesting genuine buying conviction rather than a false break.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from 3.118 to 3.202, the key levels of 3.153 (38.2%) and 3.171 (61.8%) were both tested during the session. The 3.171 level was briefly surpassed but did not hold, indicating possible resistance. Price found support at 3.145–3.147 during a consolidation phase, which aligns with the 61.8% level of the previous lower swing.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed structure and volume confirmation during the breakout, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long near the 3.187 level on a confirmed breakout with a stop just below 3.171. A target could be placed at 3.195–3.202, based on the recent Fibonacci resistance and the height of the flag pattern. This setup would aim to capture a continuation of the bullish momentum with defined risk levels, making it suitable for short-term traders looking to capitalize on clear price and volume signals.