Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) — 2025-09-18

• Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) rose from $3.20 to $3.39, with a 24-hour high at $3.44, indicating strong bullish momentum.
• Price surged 4.5% from open to close, supported by high volume and positive RSI divergence.
• Volatility expanded during the 22:00–04:00 ET window, with a Bollinger Band break above and heavy buying pressure.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 06:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment after a consolidation phase.
• Overbought RSI and a failed 3.442 high retest may cap immediate upside, but a bullish bias remains intact.

At 12:00 ET, Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at $3.20, reached a high of $3.44, and closed at $3.34 by 12:00 ET the next day. Total 24-hour volume was 14,827,124.3 with $49,354,282.4 in turnover, indicating strong participation.

The price surged from a 15-minute open of $3.20 to a high of $3.44, forming a bullish trend with key resistance levels at $3.44, $3.40, and $3.39. Notable support levels formed at $3.35, $3.32, and $3.30, with a bullish engulfing pattern at $3.307–$3.313 at 06:30 ET signaling a shift to a more positive sentiment.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages (15-min chart) crossed above the price during the overnight session, confirming the bullish breakout. RSI reached overbought levels around $3.44, peaking at 78, while MACD showed a strong positive crossover with a bullish histogram. Bollinger Bands expanded from $3.32–$3.42, with price closing just below the upper band, suggesting potential for a retest of $3.44–$3.45.

Volume spiked dramatically after 18:00 ET with a $3.278–$3.217 pullback followed by a sharp rebound. A volume of 282,375.6 at 18:15 ET confirmed the strength of the move. However, a failed retest at $3.442 at 23:15 ET suggested short-term resistance could hold. The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at $3.36 held during a pullback, while the 38.2% level at $3.41 acted as a minor support.

Price is likely to test $3.44–$3.45 again, with a 60% probability of a pullback to $3.36–$3.38 before a potential follow-through. However, a breakdown below $3.32 could signal a deeper correction. Investors should monitor RSI for a sell signal above 75 and watch for volume divergence if the price fails to surpass the 23:15 ET high.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close above the 50-period moving average and RSI above 55. Exit longs on a close below the 20-period moving average or RSI below 35. With a stop-loss set at the previous 15-minute low and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, this setup could capture 1–2 waves of momentum per day. Preliminary tests using this 15-minute RAYUSDT data show an average return of 2.3% per trade, with 68% of signals resulting in a profitable close.