Market Overview for Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) – 2025-09-18

• Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) rose to a high of 3.427 before retracting to close at 3.355, reflecting mixed momentum and key volatility.
• A strong volume spike of 106,172.9 at 18:15 ET confirmed a bullish breakout attempt, but a bearish reversal followed.
• RSI reached overbought territory during the breakout but quickly corrected into neutral levels by the close.
• A notable 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern formed at 19:30 ET, but it was quickly invalidated.
• Bollinger Band contraction occurred in the early morning, hinting at a potential breakout but with uncertain direction.

Price Action and Volatility

Raydium/Tether (RAYUSDT) opened at 3.205 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.355 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The 24-hour high was 3.427, and the low was 3.182. Total trading volume was 4,474,983.7, while total turnover amounted to 14,766,194.3. The price action reflected a volatile 24-hour session, marked by multiple key swings, including a strong bullish move late in the session and a sharp correction in the early hours of the new day.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a series of notable candlestick patterns, including a bullish engulfing at 19:30 ET and a bearish engulfing at 00:45 ET. A doji formed at 00:000000, signaling indecision in the market. Key support levels emerged around 3.355 and 3.322, with resistance levels forming near 3.416 and 3.427. These levels appear to be critical for near-term directional bias and could trigger either continuation or reversal patterns depending on volume confirmation.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages intersected multiple times, indicating a choppy and momentum-driven market. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period line briefly in the evening, suggesting a short-term bullish bias, but the cross was not sustained. The MACD histogram showed positive divergence early in the session but turned negative by the close, signaling weakening momentum and a bearish tilt.

RSI, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci

The RSI indicator reached 73 at 22:30 ET, indicating overbought conditions, but quickly corrected into neutral territory. Bollinger Bands were in a state of contraction during the early morning hours, signaling potential breakout conditions. Price closed near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the 19:30 ET high to the 00:45 ET low. A test of the 61.8% level (around 3.386) could trigger either a bounce or a breakdown, depending on volume and order flow.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

The highest volume was recorded at 18:15 ET with 282,375.6, confirming a strong breakout attempt, followed by a sharp decline in activity later in the session. A divergence between price and turnover was observed in the early morning, with price falling despite relatively low turnover. This may indicate reduced conviction in the bearish move, and if this pattern continues, it could suggest a potential reversal in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be built around identifying bullish engulfing patterns confirmed by strong volume, as seen at 19:30 ET, followed by a retest of key Fibonacci levels. A buy signal could be generated when price closes above the 38.2% retracement level with increased volume, while a sell signal could trigger on a breakdown below 3.322 with a bearish engulfing pattern. This approach would aim to capture short-term countertrend or trend continuation moves, depending on the prevailing structure.