Market Overview: Radworks/Tether (RADUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• Price action shows a sharp 15.3% 24-hour decline from 0.677 to 0.601, marking a bearish reversal pattern after a brief rebound.
• Volatility surged during the drop, with Bollinger Band width expanding significantly and price hitting the lower band.
• RSI hit oversold territory (<30) by 12:00 ET, suggesting potential near-term rebound, though momentum remains weak.
• Turnover spiked to $522,643 at the 12:00 ET print, while volume remained elevated, indicating heightened trader activity during the decline.
• A deepening bearish bias is evident from the 15-minute chart, with 50-period MA now acting as a dynamic resistance below the close.

RADUSDT opened at 0.677 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 0.685 before dropping to a low of 0.598 by 12:00 ET. The price closed at 0.601, reflecting a 15.3% decline. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 2,731,126.9 with a turnover of $1,686,000. The sharp selloff appears to be driven by a combination of bearish momentum and a breakdown in key support levels.

Structure and candlestick formations over the last 24 hours indicate a significant bearish bias. A key support level was broken at 0.613, with subsequent price action forming a series of bearish engulfing patterns and long lower shadows suggesting capitulation. A bearish doji emerged at 0.622, signaling indecision and a potential reversal point that ultimately failed to hold. Resistance at 0.639–0.644 was decisively rejected, accelerating the downward move.

The 15-minute 20/50-period moving averages have both crossed below the price, reinforcing the short-term bearish trend. The 50-period MA currently resides at 0.621 and is acting as dynamic resistance, while the 20-period MA is at 0.605, indicating ongoing downward pressure. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs remain untested, but the sharp intraday selloff has brought the price closer to the 200-period MA for potential support at 0.625.

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The RSI has entered oversold territory (<30) and is showing signs of potential divergence with price, suggesting a temporary rebound may be in play. MACD has turned negative, with the histogram showing strong bearish momentum during the selloff. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly as volatility surged, with price reaching the lower band at 0.598 and showing potential for a mean reversion. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.615 appears to have failed, while the 61.8% level at 0.644 was clearly rejected, reinforcing the bearish trend.

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Over the next 24 hours, the market may test the 0.598 level once again or bounce from the 0.601 close if oversold conditions trigger short-covering. However, the bearish momentum and lack of a strong bullish catalyst suggest that further downside is more likely. Investors should closely watch the 0.625 level for potential support, while a breakdown below 0.598 could accelerate the decline.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described utilizes a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band mean reversion to identify potential short-term countertrend trades during a strong bearish bias. In the context of today’s selloff, the strategy would have triggered a long signal when RSI hit oversold levels and the price touched the lower Bollinger Band. However, the lack of divergence in volume and the weak MACD suggest limited conviction in the bounce. A more robust approach would pair this with a Fibonacci-based stop-loss at 0.598 and a profit target at 0.615. This strategy may have yielded a short-term gain of 1.5–2.5% but would likely have been outperformed by a pure trend-following bearish strategy over the same period.

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