Market Overview for Radiant Capital/Tether (RDNTUSDT) – September 19, 2025

• Price opened at $0.02236 and traded between $0.02111 and $0.02267, closing at $0.02135.
• A late-day bearish breakdown occurred after a bullish morning rally, with a key swing high at $0.02264.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence with price, indicating potential overbought exhaustion and weakening momentum.
• Volatility spiked in the late morning and declined sharply in the afternoon, with heavy turnover at key levels.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the session high, while a doji at the close suggests indecision.

The Radiant Capital/Tether (RDNTUSDT) pair opened at $0.02236 at 12:00 ET–1 on September 18 and reached a high of $0.02267 before closing at $0.02135 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session saw a total volume of 44,174,411.0 units and a notional turnover of approximately $963,364. The price action was characterized by a sharp midday rally to a local high, followed by a broad, unidirectional decline in the latter half of the session.

Structure and formations showed multiple key levels of significance. A bullish flag pattern emerged in the morning with a break above $0.0225, but this was quickly rejected in an engulfing bearish candle that formed at $0.02264. A doji at the session close around $0.02135 indicated indecision and potential exhaustion among sellers. Support levels were identified near $0.02134, $0.02160, and $0.02195, while resistance appeared near $0.02218 and $0.02255 on the 15-minute timeframe.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a cross of the 20-period and 50-period lines during the early rally, confirming bullish momentum before the reversal. However, by the afternoon, the 50-period line crossed below the 20-period, signaling bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period lines remained well-separated, with the 50-period line above the 200-period, indicating a long-term bullish bias.

The RSI reached 65 during the morning rally, a neutral to overbought reading, while MACD crossed above the signal line before diverging with price action in the afternoon, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the early rally, with the price moving to the upper band before a sharp contraction. This contraction indicated reduced volatility ahead of the large bearish move. Price closed below the lower Bollinger band by the session’s end, highlighting the bearish trend.

Volume and notional turnover spiked in the morning, with over 3.5 million units traded in the first two hours of the session. However, this was followed by a steady decline in volume and turnover during the afternoon, suggesting a waning of bullish conviction. Notably, price fell to new intraday lows with diminishing volume, a bearish sign for continuation. The volume profile showed confirmation of the bearish move in the late morning, with a sharp increase in selling pressure around the $0.02264–$0.02235 range.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute swing from $0.02236 to $0.02267 showed price correcting to the 61.8% level at $0.02251 before falling further. On the larger daily chart, retracement levels from the recent high indicated potential support at $0.02189 (38.2%) and $0.02134 (61.8%), which coincided with the final closing price. The alignment of these levels with key candlestick patterns and volume spikes suggests meaningful technical significance in the near-term support zone.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see a test of the key support level at $0.02134. If this level holds, a potential rebound toward the $0.02160–$0.02189 range may follow. However, a break below $0.02134 could accelerate the downward trend. Traders should remain cautious as the RSI and MACD suggest exhaustion, but the divergence may not be enough to reverse the broader bearish momentum. A reversal signal would require clear bullish volume and price confirmation at these levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed technical indicators—particularly the bearish engulfing pattern, bearish divergence in RSI and MACD, and the alignment of Fibonacci retracement levels with key support—this session aligns with a short-biased strategy. A potential backtest could involve entering a short position on a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.02134, with a stop-loss placed above the doji’s high at $0.02148 and a take-profit target near $0.02100 or the 78.6% retracement. This setup leverages the combination of pattern confirmation, momentum exhaustion, and price-volume alignment. The strategy could be refined by incorporating Bollinger Band breakouts or volatility expansion triggers to manage risk and optimize trade entries.