Market Overview for Radiant Capital/Tether (RDNTUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• • •

• Price dipped from 0.01966 to 0.01868 on strong bearish momentum, forming key support near 0.01861.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 22:00–02:00 ET window, coinciding with sharp price declines.
• Bollinger Bands show wide expansion after a period of contraction, indicating heightened price uncertainty.
• Notional turnover spiked to $177,142,800 at 13:00 ET, reflecting increased interest in the pair.

The Radiant Capital/Tether (RDNTUSDT) pair opened at 0.01961 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.01969. It closed at 0.01892 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25 after hitting a 24-hour low of 0.01861. Total volume amounted to 18,014,293 units, while notional turnover reached approximately $34,077,698, based on an average price of $0.0019.

The price structure revealed a bearish trend dominated by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. A notable formation was a bearish engulfing pattern observed at 02:45–03:00 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. Key support levels include 0.01861 (24-hour low) and 0.0188, which appears to have some buying pressure. Resistance is likely to be tested around 0.0190–0.0191, with a prior close at 0.01906 indicating prior bearish control.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart suggest continued bearish momentum, with the 50-period MA crossing below the 20-period MA to form a death cross. This could signal a continuation of the downtrend in the near term. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period MAs remain in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the longer-term bearish outlook.

The MACD moved below the signal line at around 03:00 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. It has remained negative throughout most of the 24-hour window. The RSI dipped into the 20–25 range, signaling oversold conditions, which could set the stage for a potential rebound. However, without a strong reversal candle or a bullish breakout above 0.01905, a sustained bounce is unlikely.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 22:00–02:00 ET window, aligning with the sharp drop in price. This volatility expansion often precedes consolidation or a sharp reversal. The price remains near the lower band, indicating a high probability of further downward pressure in the absence of strong buyers.

Fibonacci retracement levels derived from the swing high at 0.01969 and swing low at 0.01861 indicate potential support/resistance at 0.01884 (38.2%), 0.01901 (50%), and 0.01918 (61.8%). The price is currently forming a base near the 0.01884 level, where it may consolidate or encounter renewed selling pressure. A break below this level could push the price toward the 0.01861 level again, while a breakout above 0.01901 could signal a short-term bear trap.

Volume and notional turnover spiked significantly during the bearish collapse in the early hours of 2025-09-25, particularly between 02:00–04:00 ET, with the largest single 15-minute turnover of $177,142,800 at 13:00 ET. This divergence in volume suggests strong conviction behind the bearish move, but also points to a possible exhaustion if volume declines without a corresponding price drop.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described focuses on identifying bearish engulfing patterns and oversold RSI levels as entry triggers for short positions. Based on today’s data, a strategy that shorted at 03:00 ET (0.01909) after the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI hitting the 25 level would have captured the subsequent drop to 0.01861. A stop-loss placed above the 0.01918 Fibonacci level would have provided risk control. A trailing stop could have been applied as the price approached the 0.01884 level to lock in profits or manage risk. This aligns well with the observed behavior, suggesting the strategy could be effective in similar setups in the future.