Market Overview for QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT)

• QKCUSDT broke below key support at $0.00525, signaling bearish momentum with strong volume during the evening session.
• Price found temporary support near $0.00515 before rebounding, forming a potential bullish reversal pattern in early ET hours.
• Volatility surged between 20:00 and 22:00 ET, with over $5M in notional turnover indicating heightened market interest.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, though bearish bias remains intact.
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the late-ET rebound, indicating a shift in near-term price dynamics.

Market Open and Price Action

QuarkChain/Tether (QKCUSDT) opened at $0.005284 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.00543 before closing at $0.00524 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12. The 24-hour low was $0.005147. Total volume for the period was 183,021,513.0 QKC, and notional turnover was approximately $967,594. The pair exhibited a bearish bias, with price trending below its 20- and 50-period moving averages.

Structure and Key Levels

Price action revealed a bearish breakdown from the $0.00530 support level, with a significant rejection observed at the $0.00520–$0.00525 range. A potential bullish reversal pattern formed after the price rebounded from the 24-hour low of $0.005147. This level could serve as a short-term support. Resistance levels to watch in the near term include $0.00525 and $0.00530, with a failed attempt at $0.00535 suggesting lingering bearish sentiment.

Trend and Momentum Indicators

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both below current price, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. The RSI indicator moved into oversold territory around 03:00 ET, reaching a low of ~30, which could hint at a potential bounce. The MACD showed a bearish crossover with a negative histogram, indicating waning bullish momentum. However, a short-lived positive MACD crossover occurred during the early-ET rebound, signaling a potential shift in sentiment.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the late-ET rebound, indicating a surge in volatility. Price action moved from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.00520 to the 38.2% level at $0.00530, suggesting that the $0.00530 level might hold as a key resistance. The 200-period daily moving average is currently at $0.00528, aligning with the 50-period 15-minute MA, and could be a key psychological barrier if the price attempts to retest it.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the identified structure and Fibonacci levels, a potential short-term reversal strategy could be to enter a long position on a confirmed close above the 38.2% retracement level at $0.00530 with a stop loss at $0.00525 and a take-profit target at $0.00535. This would leverage the bearish breakdown and subsequent rebound as potential signs of a short-term bounce. The RSI hitting oversold levels and the positive MACD crossover during the rebound also support such a setup. Backtesting this strategy on historical 15-minute data would help refine entry timing and risk-reward parameters.