Market Overview: QTUM/USDT on 2025-10-30

• QTUM/USDT declined 10.3% over 24 hours, hitting a low of 1.838 and closing near 1.840.
• A massive sell-off emerged post-18:45 ET, with volume spiking to 51,275.7 and price dropping 8.6%.
• Momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) signaled overbought conditions earlier, followed by bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, suggesting increased volatility.
• Fibonacci retracements indicate potential near-term support at 1.836–1.851 and 1.795 (38.2% and 61.8% levels).

24-Hour Performance

Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) opened at 1.973 on October 29, 12:00 ET, hit an intraday high of 2.062, and closed at 1.840 as of 12:00 ET on October 30. The pair endured a sharp correction in late afternoon trading, with a 46-minute candle on 18:45 ET falling 8.6% to 1.947 and triggering further bearish momentum. Total 24-hour trading volume was 975,621.9, and notional turnover reached $1,903,353.8, with volatility peaking during the selloff.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a key bearish breakdown around 18:45–19:15 ET, where price fell from 1.995 to 1.947 within a 30-minute window. A long lower shadow appeared at 19:00 ET (1.946 to 1.980 close), suggesting rejected bullish attempts. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed between 19:00 ET and 19:15 ET, and a doji at 20:30 ET (1.991–2.014) hinted at indecision after earlier strength.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly in the final hours of trading, signaling a shift to bearish momentum. The 50/100/200 daily SMA alignment remains in a neutral-to-bullish bias, but the recent 15-minute crossover confirms short-term bearish control. RSI moved from overbought (75–85) during early morning buying to oversold (30–34) by early evening, aligning with the sharp pullback.

MACD transitioned from a bullish crossover (positive divergence) to a bearish divergence by 20:00 ET. The histogram flipped negative and widened through the selloff, confirming the strength of the downward move.

Volatility and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands expanded dramatically between 18:45 and 20:30 ET, as price dropped sharply from 2.004 to 1.994 within a tight range before a larger selloff. Price eventually broke below the lower band at 1.916, indicating increased bearish volatility.

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 18:45–20:45 ET range (high of 2.004 to low of 1.994), key levels include 1.836 (38.2%), 1.851 (50%), and 1.795 (61.8%). These levels could serve as short-term support or consolidation zones if the selloff stalls.

Forward-Looking View and Risk

The recent selloff and bearish divergence suggest a likely continuation of downside in the near term, with 1.836–1.851 as immediate support. However, a rebound to 1.950 or above could trigger a reversal if bullish momentum emerges. Investors should closely watch for a bullish breakout from the 1.840–1.851 range, as this could signal the end of the current bearish phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent golden cross observed in the 15-minute MACD and the subsequent bearish divergence, a backtesting strategy based on MACD crossovers could be effective. To test this, the MACD series from 2022–01–01 to 2025–10–30 will be analyzed to identify historical instances where the MACD line crossed above the signal line (golden cross). Each event will then be evaluated for post-event performance, including average returns, optimal holding periods, and hit rates. This will help determine whether a strategy based on MACD golden crosses is viable for QTUM/USDT.