Market Overview for Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT)

• QTUMUSDT declined by 10.5% over the last 24 hours, closing below key support levels
• Volatility increased with a 3.4% range between high and low
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for a rebound
• Volume surged during the downtrend, confirming bearish momentum
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating expanding volatility and uncertain direction

Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) opened at $2.273 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET and closed at $2.164 by 12:00 ET on October 7, reaching a high of $2.285 and a low of $2.163. Total volume was 46,722.4, and notional turnover was $101,866. The pair has shown a bearish bias amid rising volume and a deteriorating RSI.

Structure & Formations

The price of QTUMUSDT formed a descending channel, with a critical support level identified at $2.163. A doji pattern appeared near $2.169, indicating indecision after the sharp drop. The recent bearish trend was confirmed by a strong engulfing pattern on October 7 between $2.205 and $2.222, highlighting bearish continuation. Resistance is now clustered near $2.245–$2.250, with a breakout potential if the price reverses.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA, signaling a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50 SMA is below the 100 and 200 SMAs, confirming a medium-term downtrend. The price is currently trading below all three, reinforcing the bearish structure and suggesting continued downward pressure unless a strong reversal forms.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has remained negative over the last 24 hours, with bearish divergence forming as the histogram expanded during the price decline. The RSI dipped to 28, entering oversold territory, which may precede a short-term bounce. However, without a strong volume spike during a rebound, the oversold condition may not translate into a sustained reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a previous 2.2% to 3.4% range. The price has traded near the lower band for much of the last 24 hours, indicating bearish exhaustion. A break above the middle band could signal a near-term reversal, but the bearish bias remains intact unless the price can close above the upper band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased notably during the sharp drop from $2.245 to $2.163, especially during the 15:15–15:30 ET timeframe when the price fell nearly 200 pips. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the bearish breakdown. However, volume has since decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in selling pressure and hinting at possible support forming in the $2.15–$2.18 range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent high of $2.285 to the low of $2.163 show key retracement levels at 38.2% ($2.222) and 61.8% ($2.189). The price has bounced off the 61.8% level twice, suggesting a possible short-term floor. A close above $2.222 would indicate a bullish test of the 38.2% level, which has acted as a resistance so far.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy hinges on a combination of RSI and MACD signals to identify short-term reversal opportunities. Specifically, a long signal is triggered when RSI crosses above 30 (oversold) and the MACD histogram turns positive with rising volume. Given the current setup, a potential buy signal could occur if QTUMUSDT rebounds above $2.185 with rising volume and a confirming MACD crossover. However, a lack of strong volume support or a failure to close above key resistance levels like $2.222 may invalidate the signal. The strategy emphasizes small position sizing and tight stop-losses, which align with the current volatile environment.