Market Overview for Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) experienced a bearish 24-hour trend, closing near session lows amid declining momentum.
• Key resistance appears near 2.29–2.30, with repeated rejection observed, while support may be found at 2.25–2.26.
• Volatility increased mid-session but subsided into the final hours, with notable volume surges between 16:30–18:00 ET.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions near 30, yet price failed to rebound strongly, suggesting bearish bias.
• Bollinger Bands widened during early bearish moves, narrowing later, indicating potential consolidation.

Qtum/Tether (QTUMUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of 2.24–2.316, opening at 2.269 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and closing at 2.193 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 314,686.6 units, with a notional turnover of $698,415.21. The session shows a clear bearish drift, with a late-day breakdown below 2.25.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candles show multiple key resistance clusters between 2.28–2.30, particularly during the early hours, where the price repeatedly failed to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 17:15–17:30 ET, followed by a doji near 20:15 ET, signaling indecision. The 2.25–2.26 level emerged as a short-term support zone but failed to hold for long, with price breaking below to 2.24 and even into 2.20 by the close. The late-day breakdown below 2.245 marked a key psychological level and could trigger further selling into 2.20–2.15 if not retested.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in a death cross formation around 18:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. The 50-period MA on the daily chart now sits above the 100 and 200-period MAs, indicating a continuation of a downtrend from recent months. QTUMUSDT closed below all three daily MAs, reinforcing bearish sentiment for near-term positioning.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative before 17:00 ET and remained below the signal line for the remainder of the session, supporting bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 during the close, hitting 28.2 at 16:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions. However, price did not rebound off these levels, suggesting weak follow-through buying and a potential continuation of bearish bias. Divergence between RSI and price was noted between 19:00–20:15 ET, with RSI forming higher lows while price made lower ones, indicating fading bearish strength.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded in the early session as volatility spiked during bearish moves, especially between 16:30–17:30 ET. Price remained below the middle band for most of the session and eventually settled near the lower band by the final hours, indicating a period of consolidation and bearish consolidation. The narrowing of the bands in the final 12 hours suggests reduced volatility and potential for a breakout or continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the early bearish breakdown (16:30–17:15 ET), reaching a peak of 32,040.9 units during the 17:15 ET candle. Turnover mirrored volume, with a total of $698k recorded across the session. However, volume in the final 4 hours was relatively subdued, with price breaking below 2.25 on relatively modest volume (under 10k units). This could signal a lack of conviction in the breakdown and potential for a short-term bounce or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 24-hour high (2.316) and low (2.24), the 38.2% retracement sits at 2.282 and the 61.8% at 2.256. These levels appear to have acted as minor resistance and support, respectively. Price rejected the 2.256 level twice during the session and ultimately broke below it. On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement of the 16:30–18:00 ET move aligns with 2.254, which coincided with the price’s failure to hold at 2.25–2.26.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish breakdown, a potential backtest strategy could be to enter short positions upon a close below 2.25, with a stop-loss placed above 2.28–2.30 (the key resistance cluster). A target could be set at 2.15, aligning with the 2.24–2.316 swing’s 61.8% extension. This approach would leverage both Fibonacci and trend continuation signals while accounting for RSI oversold conditions as a potential false bottom trap. A trailing stop or partial exit at 2.22–2.23 could be considered to capture near-term consolidation profits.