Market Overview for PundiX/Tether USDt (PUNDIXUSDT)

• Price dropped 0.3238 intraday but closed near 0.3272 after a long bearish recovery.
• Strong volume spikes in early and late ET hours suggest increased bearish activity.
• RSI near oversold levels hints potential near-term reversal, while MACD remained bearish.
• Bollinger Band contraction early in the session suggested low volatility ahead of a breakout.
• Key support tested at 0.3271–0.3272, with resistance forming at 0.3295–0.3305.

On 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET, PundiX/Tether USDt (PUNDIXUSDT) opened at 0.3315, hit a high of 0.3331, a low of 0.3238, and closed at 0.3272. Total volume traded was 2,328,830.0, and notional turnover was 734.02 USD. A notable bearish trend unfolded over 24 hours, marked by intraday volatility and a bearish breakout.

Structure & Formations

The price of PUNDIXUSDT followed a bearish trend throughout the session, punctuated by a sharp intraday decline below key psychological levels. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 13:45 ET as the candle closed at 0.3255, a 0.3255 low and 0.3267 high, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend. A doji formed at 15:30 ET, indicating indecision, but was quickly invalidated by lower closes in the following 15-minute candles. Critical support levels were tested and broken, with 0.3272 emerging as a short-term floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower during the session, with the price staying below both indicators, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 200-period moving average on the daily chart, while not visible in the 15-minute data, would likely confirm a bearish bias in the broader context if the 24-hour close remains below the 200SMA.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD remained bearish throughout the session, with the line below the signal line and negative histogram bars. The RSI reached an oversold level around 16:00 ET, dipping below 30, which typically signals a potential reversal. However, this oversold condition was not followed by a strong bounce, suggesting weak bullish conviction. The divergence between RSI and price action in the final 30 minutes hinted at a possible short-term bounce, but further confirmation is needed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted during the early part of the session, with the price hovering tightly within the Bollinger Bands. This was followed by a breakout to the downside, particularly after 13:15 ET, when the price moved below the lower band. This breakout confirmed a bearish continuation, suggesting that traders may have anticipated and acted on the downward move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and notional turnover showed two major spikes: one in the early part of the session (around 00:15 ET), where large volume coincided with a sharp drop to 0.3276, and another at the close (16:00 ET), where volume surged as the price bottomed at 0.324. These spikes aligned with price declines, supporting the bearish narrative. Notably, volume did not confirm the RSI’s oversold condition, suggesting that the bounce might lack sufficient bullish strength.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the intraday high of 0.3331 and the low of 0.3238, key levels of interest include the 38.2% (0.3301) and 61.8% (0.3269) retracement levels. The price briefly bounced near the 61.8% level after hitting the low, but failed to close above it. The 61.8% retracement may now act as a new support level if bullish momentum increases.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy that could be applied is one that looks for bearish engulfing patterns followed by a confirmation candle that closes below the previous candle's low. Additionally, the strategy could include a stop-loss placed above the 38.2% Fibonacci level to protect against false signals. Given the current bearish structure and volume confirmation, this strategy might yield positive returns in a downward-trending environment. However, the recent oversold RSI reading may present an entry point for short-term reversals, making it important to incorporate trailing stops or conditional exits based on RSI divergence.