Market Overview: PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) – October 13, 2025

• PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) rose from $0.3048 to $0.3318 amid a bullish reversal after hitting support at $0.3038.
• Momentum accelerated with 24-hour volume spiking to ~865k contracts at the $0.3397 peak.
• MACD turned positive; RSI approached overbought levels, suggesting a potential pullback could follow.
• Volatility expanded sharply with Bollinger Bands widening post-breakout, confirming the move.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest key near-term support at $0.3193 and resistance at $0.348.

PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) opened at $0.3048 (12:00 ET − 1), surged to a high of $0.3397, and closed at $0.3318 (12:00 ET) on October 13, 2025. The pair traded within a range of $0.3038–$0.3397 on a 24-hour volume of 3.35 million contracts and a turnover of approximately $1.13 million. Price action suggests a shift in sentiment, with a decisive break above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart.

Structure and formations revealed a key support level at $0.3038, where buying interest surged and reversed a downward trend. A bullish engulfing pattern formed near this level, signaling a potential trend reversal. As price climbed, resistance was tested at $0.3271, $0.3397, and $0.3486, the last of which was briefly surpassed before a pullback to $0.3318. Notably, the 50-period and 20-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are now aligned in a bullish bias, supporting further upside. However, price remains below the 50-period daily MA, suggesting caution on a longer time horizon.

Momentum indicators painted a mixed picture. The MACD crossed into positive territory, reinforcing bullish momentum, while the RSI approached 70, hinting at overbought conditions. This suggests that while the upward move is strong, it could face a short-term correction. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout, indicating a period of heightened volatility. Price closed near the upper band, which may trigger a retest or consolidation in the near term. Fibonacci retracement levels based on the recent swing low to high suggest key levels to watch: 38.2% at $0.3196 and 61.8% at $0.3431.

Volume and turnover surged sharply during the late morning hours, peaking at $0.3397 with 865,095 contracts traded. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the strength of the move. However, a divergence appears in the afternoon as volume dipped despite price testing $0.3486. This could signal weakening momentum. For now, the positive correlation between price and volume supports a continuation case, but traders should monitor for volume contraction in the next 24 hours to avoid false breakouts.

Backtest Hypothesis

To build a robust backtesting framework aligned with the recent price dynamics of PUNDIXUSDT, a strategy could be designed to target bullish engulfing patterns detected on the 15-minute chart. Given the strong volume confirmation and positive MACD during the recent breakout, a potential backtest hypothesis might involve entering long positions on confirmed bullish engulfings that occur within key Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 38.2%–50%). The holding period could be set for three trading days, with a strict rule to close the position at the end of the third day, regardless of profit or loss. This approach would help isolate the effectiveness of the pattern in a low-volatility, short-term trading environment. The strategy would benefit from applying RSI and Bollinger Band indicators to refine entry conditions and filter false signals. Testing this hypothesis would require a dataset of PUNDIXUSDT's 15-minute candles from at least early 2025 to validate consistency in signal generation and profitability across varying market conditions.