Market Overview: PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) – 24-Hour Price Action and Volatility Analysis

• PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) traded within a narrow range for most of the session, with bearish momentum gaining strength after 19:30 ET.
• A key support level at 0.3087–0.3088 was tested and held, followed by a gradual recovery toward 0.3120s by midday.
• Volatility expanded after 00:00 ET as price dropped to 0.3048, reflecting high volume and potential short-term reversal risks.
• The RSI dipped into oversold territory at 0.3048 before rebounding, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the late-night sell-off, indicating a phase shift in market dynamics.

The PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) pair opened at 0.3111 on 2025-10-07 12:00 ET and traded as high as 0.3143 before closing at 0.3117 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour session recorded a total volume of 666,391.1 and a notional turnover of 205,051.98, with notable price compression and expansion observed across key timeframes.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish shift after 19:30 ET, with a strong rejection at 0.3087–0.3088 following a large bearish candle at 19:30. This low formed a potential support level, where price consolidated before a gradual recovery. A bullish engulfing pattern at 02:15 ET suggested a reversal, but it was short-lived as bearish pressure returned. A key 15-minute doji at 01:45 ET indicated indecision during the downward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA crossed below the price during the late-night sell-off, reinforcing bearish momentum. By midday, price moved back above the 50-EMA, hinting at potential recovery. On the daily chart, the 50-DMA and 200-DMA were both below the current price, indicating a long-term bullish bias but with short-term bearish deviation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 19:30 ET, confirming bearish momentum, with a bearish crossover below zero occurring around 20:00. RSI bottomed at 28 during the low at 0.3048, entering oversold territory before rebounding. This suggests potential for a near-term bounce, but the strength of the rebound will depend on volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands experienced a sharp contraction during the early hours of the session, indicating a period of consolidation. However, after 00:00 ET, bands expanded dramatically as price dropped below the lower band, reaching 0.3048. Price then moved back toward the midline by midday, indicating a potential return to equilibrium. The expansion of volatility during the sell-off is a key signal for traders.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 00:00–03:00 ET window, especially at 03:30 ET, where a large bearish candle with volume of 63,617.8 marked the 0.3059 close. Notional turnover also increased during this phase, confirming the bearish move. Later in the session, volume decreased during the rebound, which may signal a weaker reversal unless confirmed by higher volume in the next session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 0.3143 to 0.3048, price found support at 0.3087 (38.2%) before bouncing to 0.3117. The 61.8% level at 0.3109 was also tested and held, suggesting a key area for possible consolidation or reversal. These levels could provide tactical entry points for both short-term and medium-term traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering long positions when price closes above the 50-EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the recent swing low. This is combined with RSI entering oversold territory and volume increasing. The above 24-hour session partially aligns with this strategy, as price closed above the 50-EMA at 02:15 and 08:00 ET, with volume confirming the 02:15 move. However, the 08:00 ET move lacked follow-through volume and RSI was not in oversold conditions at that time. The strategy may perform better in consolidation phases with clear EMA crossovers and RSI confirmation.