Market Overview: PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined from $0.3364 to $0.3182 amid heavy volume, breaking key support levels.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions, but price continued to fall, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 17:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening as trend accelerated.
• A doji and long lower wicks indicated rejection of higher levels, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
• Turnover surged to $226,043 at close, aligning with sharp price decline and confirming bearish dominance.

The PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) pair opened at $0.3318 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.3364 before falling to a 24-hour low of $0.3182. The price closed at $0.3181 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total volume amounted to 1,071,300.3 units, with notional turnover reaching approximately $299,339.

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a strong bearish bias, with a significant selloff emerging after 17:00 ET. A large bearish candle with a long lower wick formed around 17:15 ET, followed by a long bearish real body at 17:30 ET, indicating rejection of higher prices. Later, a doji formed at 21:30 ET, hinting at possible exhaustion in the downtrend, though it failed to reverse the momentum. A key support level appears to have been broken at $0.3300, now acting as resistance on the way back up.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 17:00 and 19:00 ET, reflecting rising volatility and a breakout from a tight range. Price remained near the lower band for the rest of the session, suggesting oversold conditions. RSI dropped below 30 for much of the session, confirming bearish pressure, though the lack of a rebound suggests further downside could be in play. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both dipped below price, reinforcing the bearish bias.

The volume profile reflects a sharp increase in selling pressure, particularly in the 17:00–20:00 ET timeframe, when the price dropped from $0.3364 to $0.3245. Notional turnover spiked to $60,228 in the candle ending at 17:15 ET, coinciding with a 1.3% drop. A similar pattern occurred at 17:30 ET, with $189,045 turnover and a 1.3% fall in price. This price-volume divergence suggests strong bearish conviction and a lack of buying interest to halt the decline. Fibonacci retracements indicate the 61.8% level at around $0.3210 was briefly tested, but failed to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and confirmed break below key support levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry on a 15-minute RSI drop below 30, confirmed by a bearish candle with a long lower wick. Stop-loss could be placed at the nearest higher retracement level (e.g., 50% at $0.3270), with a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($0.3210) or below. This approach aims to capture short-term bearish continuation while limiting exposure to potential reversals. The strategy would benefit from additional volume confirmation and could be optimized using time-based filters to avoid false signals during high volatility.