Market Overview: PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• PUNDIXUSDT broke below key support near 0.3115, with volume surging during the decline.
• Price action from 0.3165 to 0.3067 shows a bearish momentum bias confirmed by the RSI.
• Volatility expanded on the 15-min chart as PundiX/Tether fell 3.1% in 24 hours.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, signaling potential oversold conditions.
• A long candle on the 15-min chart at 00:30 ET indicates bearish conviction and possible reversal failure.

PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) opened at 0.3113 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3016 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.3166 and a low of 0.3016 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 690,634.7, and notional turnover was approximately $215,172.77. The asset saw a bearish continuation amid rising volatility and divergent price-volume dynamics.

Structure and price formations on the 15-min chart show a key support level forming near 0.3115, which was decisively broken on 2025-10-09 after an intraday rally failed to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 02:45 ET, followed by a large bearish candle at 00:30 ET. A potential support level appears near 0.308–0.309, while resistance is currently inactive above 0.313. Price remains below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-min chart, confirming short-term bearish bias.

MACD shows a bearish crossover on the 15-min chart, with the histogram declining over the last 12 hours. RSI is in oversold territory near 32, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the lack of a strong reversal candle at this level increases the likelihood of a deeper pullback. Bollinger Bands show the price sitting near the lower band, indicating a high volatility phase with no immediate signs of consolidation.

Volume increased significantly during the sharp decline from 0.3166 to 0.3016, especially during the 00:30–02:00 ET window, where it averaged around 70,000 units per hour. Notional turnover spiked during these hours as well, confirming the bearish sentiment. A divergence appears to form between price and volume in the final 30 minutes before the close, suggesting potential exhaustion in the downward move.

Fibonacci levels applied to the 0.3166–0.3016 decline indicate a 38.2% retracement at 0.3112 and 61.8% at 0.3089. A 50% retracement sits at 0.3091, aligning with a potential near-term support. The 61.8% level appears to be a key area to watch for possible bounce or continuation of the trend.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by a close below key support at 0.3115, with a stop above 0.315 and a target at the next Fibonacci level at 0.3089 or beyond. A long bias may be triggered only on a retest of 0.3089 with a bullish reversal candle and a closing above 0.310. This strategy could be validated using historical 15-min data over the last 30 days, focusing on win rate, risk-reward ratio, and drawdowns during high volatility periods.