Market Overview for PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT): 2025-10-05

• PUNDIX/USDT traded in a tight range before surging past 0.3253.
• A bullish breakout above 0.3253 was followed by consolidation.
• Volume spiked during the breakout, confirming strength.
• RSI and MACD suggest momentum is flagging after the push.
• Volatility widened during the surge, with Bollinger Bands expanding.

The PundiX/Tether (PUNDIXUSDT) pair opened at 0.3181 on 2025-10-04 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.3236 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05, with a high of 0.3292 and a low of 0.3181. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 534,213.6, while notional turnover (volume × price) reached approximately $169,119.21. The price action displayed a significant upward breakout around midday, followed by a pullback and consolidation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a key support level at 0.3219, which held during multiple tests. A breakout occurred above 0.3253, with a bullish continuation of the trend into the 0.3284 level. A bearish reversal pattern emerged around 0.3284–0.3282, suggesting potential resistance. The formation of a doji near 0.3282 and a subsequent bearish engulfing pattern hint at waning momentum. A consolidation phase is now underway, with price hovering just above 0.3236.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both sloping upward, aligning with the recent bullish trend. The 20SMA sits at 0.3244, and the 50SMA at 0.3240, indicating a bullish crossover scenario that has persisted. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.3218, while the 200-period MA is at 0.3195. Price is currently trading above both, signaling a continuation of the medium-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line during the morning breakout, confirming the bullish momentum. However, the histogram has begun to contract, indicating a potential slowdown in the trend. RSI stands at 52.5, slightly above the neutral zone, suggesting no overbought condition, but also no significant oversold signal. RSI remains in the mid-range, consistent with a consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout, with the upper band reaching as high as 0.3295. The recent pullback has seen price consolidate within the bands, currently sitting at the midline. The volatility contraction that preceded the breakout was a classic signal for a potential breakout or breakdown event, and the subsequent move did unfold accordingly.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout above 0.3253, confirming the strength of the move. The peak volume occurred at 0.3292, with over 69,966 contracts traded. Since then, volume has decreased, suggesting the move may be losing steam. Notional turnover also peaked during the breakout, followed by a decline, aligning with the volume pattern. No major price-turnover divergence has occurred so far, suggesting the trend is still in play.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.3181 to 0.3292 shows the current price at approximately 38.2% retracement. A key level at 0.3249 (61.8%) is now acting as a potential support zone. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci level at 0.3251 aligns with current price action, making it a critical area for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy in question involves entering a long position when the 20SMA crosses above the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart and the price breaks above a key resistance level confirmed by volume. A stop-loss is placed at the nearest swing low, and a take-profit is set at 1.5 times the range of the breakout. This strategy aligns well with today’s price action, as the 20/50 SMA crossover and breakout above 0.3253 both occurred with strong volume. A test of this strategy over the past 30 days would help quantify its effectiveness.