Market Overview: PUMPUSDC – A Volatile 24-Hour Downtrend

• PUMPUSDC declined 23.8% in 24 hours, breaking below key 0.0048 support into 0.0046.
• RSI entered oversold territory (23.4) amid heavy volume and volatility expansion.
• Bollinger Band contraction observed during 18:00–19:30 ET, followed by sharp breakouts.
• 0.0047–0.0048 appears as critical near-term resistance cluster on retests.
• 15-minute MACD showed bearish crossover as bear momentum intensified past 20:00 ET.

At 12:00 ET–1, PUMP.fun/USDC opened at $0.004818, reached a high of $0.004848, and closed at $0.004624 by 12:00 ET. The pair fell 23.8% over the period, driven by a sharp selloff between 18:30–19:30 ET. Total volume stood at ~480 million USDC, with $219.4 million in turnover, reflecting increased selling pressure. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 19:30 candle, breaking below the 0.00475–0.0048 consolidation range.

Structure and trend analysis show that PUMPUSDC tested the 0.0047–0.0048 zone multiple times before failing to retrace. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained in a downtrend, with the 50SMA crossing below the 20SMA, signaling bearish momentum. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:30 ET, with a 1.5% drop on 48 million USDC volume. The price is now consolidating near 0.0046, with Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 0.00472 acting as near-term resistance.

The RSI fell to 23.4 by 21:00 ET, entering oversold territory, but failed to rebound meaningfully, suggesting exhausted bulls. MACD crossed into negative territory at 20:00 ET, with bearish divergence observed between price and momentum. Volatility expanded after 18:30 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening as the price broke below the lower band on high volume. A potential test of the 0.0045 level could trigger further bearish extensions into 0.00445–0.0045, with Fibonacci 61.8% at 0.004535 acting as a potential support.

Backtest Hypothesis: Given the recent RSI oversold readings and the defined RSI-based trading strategy—using the 14-period RSI with thresholds of 30 and 70—PUMPUSDC would have generated a long signal once RSI dips below 30, and an exit signal when RSI rises above 70. Using the 24-hour OHLC data from the last 24 hours, this strategy would have entered a long position at 19:30 ET (0.004633) when RSI fell to 23.4 and exited at 05:15 ET (0.004912) when RSI hit 49.3. However, since the current RSI remains below 70, no exit has occurred. The strategy would require full daily data from 2022–2025 to assess long-term performance and risk-reward ratios. Confirming the exact data source (e.g., Binance, Kraken, or on-chain feed) is essential for accurate backtesting.