Market Overview for PUMPUSDC (Pump.fun/USDC)

• PUMPUSDC declined from 0.004076 to 0.003765 over 24 hours, with key bearish breakdowns after 19:30 ET.
• A deep 9.1% decline highlights bearish momentum, confirmed by overbought RSI exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded as prices tested lower Bollinger Band thresholds repeatedly.
• Volume surged during the 19:30–20:30 ET selloff, but failed to confirm bullish follow-through.
• Key support at 0.00375–0.00378 may hold, with Fibonacci retracements suggesting 0.003705 as next level.

Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) opened at 0.004050 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.003765 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.004139 and a low of 0.00364. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 986,667,700.00, and notional turnover reached approximately $645,264. The asset displayed a clear bearish bias, with extended downward momentum and a lack of follow-through buying.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV dataset reveals a sustained bearish bias, with several bearish engulfing patterns and key support levels tested multiple times. The strongest bearish signal appeared at 19:30 ET, where a candle closed at 0.003862 with a large real body and a tail, indicating rejection above 0.003902. A key support zone between 0.00375 and 0.00378 has been tested multiple times and appears to act as a magnet for buying interest, especially during the overnight hours. A doji at 03:45 ET suggested indecision after a brief rally, but bearish pressure quickly resumed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA has remained below the 50-period MA for most of the session, confirming the bearish bias. Both lines trended lower, with the 50-period MA at approximately 0.00386. The 20-period MA, more sensitive to recent price action, crossed below the 50-period MA on three occasions, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting a potential extension of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has remained negative throughout the session, with a bearish crossover between the MACD and signal lines occurring at 19:30 ET. The RSI hit overbought levels early in the session, reaching 73 at 16:15 ET, followed by a rapid sell-off that brought the RSI down to 27 by 20:15 ET — a classic bearish exhaustion pattern. The RSI has since oscillated between 30 and 45, indicating low momentum but not yet oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff phase, pushing the lower Bollinger Band down to 0.00364. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting extreme bearish sentiment. The band width increased from 0.000082 to 0.000098, indicating a potential consolidation phase ahead. A rebound to the mid-Band at around 0.00378 could trigger a short-term bounce, but without a closing above the upper band, bearish control remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 19:30–20:30 ET session, peaking at 58,512,361 with a turnover of approximately $223,522. This marked the largest volume spike of the session, but prices continued to decline afterward, indicating bearish exhaustion rather than a bottoming signal. The volume-to-price divergence suggests that buyers have been unable to absorb the increased selling pressure. Overnight volume was relatively muted, with most price action confined between 0.00375 and 0.00381.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from 0.004047 to 0.00364, the 38.2% level at 0.00383 aligns with the 03:00–05:00 ET support level. The 61.8% level at 0.00376 aligns with the recent consolidation zone. Price has remained below the 50% retracement level of 0.00384, indicating bearish control of the trend. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the previous major high suggests 0.00369 as a key psychological level to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on identifying bearish engulfing patterns followed by a confirmation candle closing below the engulfing pattern's low. Given the current bearish momentum, RSI exhaustion, and Fibonacci support levels near 0.003705, a sell signal could be triggered on a break of 0.00375. A stop-loss could be placed above the 0.00381 level, with a target at 0.00364, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This hypothesis leverages multiple technical signals and could be validated using historical data to assess its profitability and risk-reward ratio.